CAJ | 학술논문

可能最大热带气旋的设定是可能最大风暴潮计算的基础，对风暴潮灾害应急疏散具有重要意义。利用1949~2011年中国气象局(CMA)西北太平洋热带气旋最佳路径数据集、美国联合台风预警中心(JTWC)以及美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA)最大风速半径数据集，基于各等级热带气旋参数之间的定量关系，建立了各等级可能最大热带气旋最大风速、中心气压、最大风速半径、移动速度、移动方向等参数设定及路径合成的方法。以福建省连江县为例，按照台风、强台风及超强台风强度等级，分强度衰减和不衰减2种情况，设定3种移动方向，合成了共216场热带气旋作为可能最大风暴潮的计算输入。另外，对参数敏感性、风场参数设定、参数设定与计算量的关系、叠加天文潮以及溃堤等问题进行了讨论。
가능최대열대기선적설정시가능최대풍폭조계산적기출，대풍폭조재해응급소산구유중요의의。이용1949~2011년중국기상국(CMA)서북태평양열대기선최가로경수거집、미국연합태풍예경중심(JTWC)이급미국국가해양화대기관리국(NOAA)최대풍속반경수거집，기우각등급열대기선삼수지간적정량관계，건립료각등급가능최대열대기선최대풍속、중심기압、최대풍속반경、이동속도、이동방향등삼수설정급로경합성적방법。이복건성련강현위례，안조태풍、강태풍급초강태풍강도등급，분강도쇠감화불쇠감2충정황，설정3충이동방향，합성료공216장열대기선작위가능최대풍폭조적계산수입。령외，대삼수민감성、풍장삼수설정、삼수설정여계산량적관계、첩가천문조이급궤제등문제진행료토론。
The parameterization of Probable Maximum Tropical Cyclones (PMTC) is of great importance to the computation of Probable Maximum Storm Surge (PMSS) for emergency evacuation planning at different scales of tropical cyclones. Based on the Best Track Dataset (1949-2011) of the western north pacific from CMA and other two databases, the radius of maximum wind from JTWC and NOAA, the quantitative relationships between the maximum winds and other parameters of various scales wereanalyzed and modeled. A method wasdeveloped to set maximum sustained wind, central pressure, radius of maximum winds, forward velocity and direction, and then to synthetize the full track with the above parameters. Taking Liangjiang County, Fujian province as an example area, 216 tropical cyclones were synthetized for tropical cyclones scaled at typhoon, severe typhoon and super typhoon, with decay and no-decay at 3 major directions. At last, parameter sensitivity, Holland B parameter setting, wind field parameter setting and computation resource requirement, astronomical tide, and dam failure, etc. were dis-cussed.