CAJ | 학술논문

目的：分析2005-2011年中国大陆地区梅毒疫情的时空分布特征。方法基于2005-2011年全国31个省、直辖市和自治区(未包括台湾省、香港和澳门特别行政区)网络报告的梅毒疫情数据和人口信息,建立地理信息数据库,导入 GeoDa 0.95i和 SaTScan 9.1.1软件,进行全局、局部空间自相关分析和时空扫描聚类分析,确定梅毒时空热点区域。结果2005-2011年中国大陆地区报告的梅毒总病例数为1841217例,年发病率为20.07/10万。2005-2011年中国大陆地区梅毒病例时空呈明显聚集性分布。除2011年,2005-2010年全局型空间自相关系数 Moran’s I均具有统计学意义。局部自相关分析结果提示,2005-2009年江苏、上海、浙江、福建处于(高,高)区域,2006-2008年重庆处于(高,低)区域,2011年中国大陆所有地区均未处于(高,高)区域。时空扫描聚类分析,发现1个一级聚类区域和5个二级聚类区域。一级聚类区域位于2009-2011年的上海、浙江地区；5个二级聚类区域分别为2009-2011年的广东、广西及海南地区,2009-2011年的新疆地区,2010-2011年的辽宁、吉林地区,2011年的甘肃、宁夏、陕西、四川、重庆、山西及内蒙古地区,2008-2010年的北京、天津地区。结论梅毒发病存在明显的时空聚集,各时空聚集区将为我国制定梅毒防控策略和评价防控措施效果提供参考。
목적：분석2005-2011년중국대륙지구매독역정적시공분포특정。방법기우2005-2011년전국31개성、직할시화자치구(미포괄태만성、향항화오문특별행정구)망락보고적매독역정수거화인구신식,건입지리신식수거고,도입 GeoDa 0.95i화 SaTScan 9.1.1연건,진행전국、국부공간자상관분석화시공소묘취류분석,학정매독시공열점구역。결과2005-2011년중국대륙지구보고적매독총병례수위1841217례,년발병솔위20.07/10만。2005-2011년중국대륙지구매독병례시공정명현취집성분포。제2011년,2005-2010년전국형공간자상관계수 Moran’s I균구유통계학의의。국부자상관분석결과제시,2005-2009년강소、상해、절강、복건처우(고,고)구역,2006-2008년중경처우(고,저)구역,2011년중국대륙소유지구균미처우(고,고)구역。시공소묘취류분석,발현1개일급취류구역화5개이급취류구역。일급취류구역위우2009-2011년적상해、절강지구；5개이급취류구역분별위2009-2011년적엄동、엄서급해남지구,2009-2011년적신강지구,2010-2011년적료녕、길임지구,2011년적감숙、저하、협서、사천、중경、산서급내몽고지구,2008-2010년적북경、천진지구。결론매독발병존재명현적시공취집,각시공취집구장위아국제정매독방공책략화평개방공조시효과제공삼고。
Objective To investigate the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of syphilis epidemic in Main-land China in 2005-2011.Methods Geographic information system was established based on the data of syphilis epidemic and demographic information from online reporting system of 3 1 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions of Mainland China from 2005 to 2011,global indication of spatial autocorrelation(GISA),local indication of spatial autocorrelation (LISA),and spatial-temporal cluster analysis were conducted by GeoDa 0.95i and SaTScan 9.1 .1 software,high risk areas of spatial-temporal distribution of syphilis were determined.Results The number of syphilis in Mainland China in 2005-2011 were 1 841 217 cases,annual incidence was 20.07/100 000,suggesting a sign of obvious cluster distribution.Except 2011,GISA coefficient Moran’s I were statistically different.Accord-ing to LISA analysis,Jiangsu,Shanghai,Zhejiang and Fujian lay in high-high region in 2005-2009,Chongqing lay in high-low region in 2006-2008,and in 2011,no area was found in high-high region.Spatio-temporal cluster anal-ysis showed that the most likely cluster was in Shanghai and Zhejiang (2009-2011);the secondary cluster distribu-ted in five areas,including Guangdong,Guangxi and Hainan (2009-2011),Xinjiang (2009-2011),Liaoning and Jilin (2010-2011),Gansu,Ningxia,Shaanxi,Sichuan,Chongqing,Shanxi and Inner Mongolia (2011),Beijing and Tianjin (2008-2010).Conclusion Significant spatio-temporal cluster pattern is found for the distribution of syphilis in mainland China,which can be meaningful for pertinent control.