CAJ | 학술논문

预测了2015年珠江三角洲机动车空气污染物和温室气体排放量,设计了6类单一控制、技术控制、结构控制以及综合控制措施的情景,并运用基准线年排放清单编制和协同效应坐标系法分析了污染物与温室气体减排的协同效应.结果表明,按目前机动车保有量增长趋势,2015年污染物和温室气体将以18%~120%的幅度增加；各控制措施下污染物和温室气体排放量均有下降,且均具有正向的协同效应,但减排的贡献差异较大.6类单一控制措施中淘汰黄标车和结构性控制措施分别对各污染物和温室气体的削减效果最明显,减排幅度均在40%以上,且正向协同效应突出,但相比其他措施,结构性控制措施实施难度大.
예측료2015년주강삼각주궤동차공기오염물화온실기체배방량,설계료6류단일공제、기술공제、결구공제이급종합공제조시적정경,병운용기준선년배방청단편제화협동효응좌표계법분석료오염물여온실기체감배적협동효응.결과표명,안목전궤동차보유량증장추세,2015년오염물화온실기체장이18%~120%적폭도증가；각공제조시하오염물화온실기체배방량균유하강,차균구유정향적협동효응,단감배적공헌차이교대.6류단일공제조시중도태황표차화결구성공제조시분별대각오염물화온실기체적삭감효과최명현,감배폭도균재40%이상,차정향협동효응돌출,단상비기타조시,결구성공제조시실시난도대.
Vehicle pollutant emissions and greenhouse gas emissions in Pearl River Delta in 2015 were predicted in this paper, and then the scenarios were studied, which respectively are single control, technical control, structural control and integrated control measures. And the co-benefits of implications on these measures was evaluated using the method of baseline year emissions inventory and co-benefit coordinates. The results showed, according to the current vehicle population growth trends, the amount of pollutants and greenhouse gases by 2015 would increase by the rate of 18%to 120%. The volume of pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions under the implication of those all control measures both would decrease, and there are positive co-benefit, while the contribution rate for reducing emissions is large different. Each pollutant and greenhouse gas reduction effect from eliminating the yellow label car and structural control measures was the most obvious, which the reduction rate was 40%or more, and the co-benefit was obviously highlight. However, structural control measures is hard to implement compared with other measures for some specific reasons.