干旱地区农业研究
榦旱地區農業研究
간한지구농업연구
AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH IN THE ARID AREAS
2013年
6期
214-219
,共6页
渭河干流%径流变化%M-K突变检验法%径流系数
渭河榦流%徑流變化%M-K突變檢驗法%徑流繫數
위하간류%경류변화%M-K돌변검험법%경류계수
main stream of Weihe River%runoff change%M-K mutation test%runoff coefficient
利用渭河干流咸阳站1960-2009年径流及降水数据，采用Kendall秩相关系数、R/S分析法、M-K突变检验法等数理统计方法，分析了渭河干流中游四季径流变化趋势及突变特征，得出结果：（1）渭河干流中游四季径流均呈极显著递减趋势，尤其是秋季径流减少最为明显，并且未来流量变化与现在保持相同的态势，即有持续递减的特征；（2）渭河干流中游段年均流量的集中期主要分布在8月中旬左右，年降水量集中期主要分布在7月底左右，径流从降水开始经过停蓄、漫流、河槽集流，然后汇流至下游河道大概需要32 d左右的时间，径流对降水的滞后期在不断延长，50年来渭河干流中游径流系数呈下降趋势；（3）采用M-K突变检验法和滑动 t检验法得出年均流量的突变时间点为1987年，春季与秋季突变时间一致，夏季突变时间与年均突变时间较为接近。
利用渭河榦流鹹暘站1960-2009年徑流及降水數據，採用Kendall秩相關繫數、R/S分析法、M-K突變檢驗法等數理統計方法，分析瞭渭河榦流中遊四季徑流變化趨勢及突變特徵，得齣結果：（1）渭河榦流中遊四季徑流均呈極顯著遞減趨勢，尤其是鞦季徑流減少最為明顯，併且未來流量變化與現在保持相同的態勢，即有持續遞減的特徵；（2）渭河榦流中遊段年均流量的集中期主要分佈在8月中旬左右，年降水量集中期主要分佈在7月底左右，徑流從降水開始經過停蓄、漫流、河槽集流，然後彙流至下遊河道大概需要32 d左右的時間，徑流對降水的滯後期在不斷延長，50年來渭河榦流中遊徑流繫數呈下降趨勢；（3）採用M-K突變檢驗法和滑動 t檢驗法得齣年均流量的突變時間點為1987年，春季與鞦季突變時間一緻，夏季突變時間與年均突變時間較為接近。
이용위하간류함양참1960-2009년경류급강수수거，채용Kendall질상관계수、R/S분석법、M-K돌변검험법등수리통계방법，분석료위하간류중유사계경류변화추세급돌변특정，득출결과：（1）위하간류중유사계경류균정겁현저체감추세，우기시추계경류감소최위명현，병차미래류량변화여현재보지상동적태세，즉유지속체감적특정；（2）위하간류중유단년균류량적집중기주요분포재8월중순좌우，년강수량집중기주요분포재7월저좌우，경류종강수개시경과정축、만류、하조집류，연후회류지하유하도대개수요32 d좌우적시간，경류대강수적체후기재불단연장，50년래위하간류중유경류계수정하강추세；（3）채용M-K돌변검험법화활동 t검험법득출년균류량적돌변시간점위1987년，춘계여추계돌변시간일치，하계돌변시간여년균돌변시간교위접근。
Utilizing the runoff and precipitation data during 1960-2009 from Xianyang Station of main stream of Weihe River,and adopting the Mathematical Statistic Methods like Kendall’s rank correlation coefficient,R/S analysis, and M-K mutation test,has analyzed the change trend and mutation characteristics of the seasonal runoff in the mid-stream of Weihe River.Obtained the results as that:(1)The runoff in each season of the midstream of Weihe River all has shown a significant decreasing trend,especially in the fall .And in future,the flow changes will be maintained the same trend that continued decreasing feature;(2)Concentrated period of the average annual flow at the middle reach of the Weihe River was mainly distributed around in mid-August,the concentrated period of annual precipitation was mainly distributed around the end of July .It was probably needed 32 days from rain after stopping storage,overland flow,flow into the river channel,then convergence to the downstream river,Runoff lag period to precipitation was continued to ex-tend .The runoff coefficient has been shown a decrease trend in the past 50 years at the middle reach of the Weihe River;(3)Adopted the M-K mutation test method and the sliping t-test method ,has obtained the mutation point time was 1987,the mutation time was more close in Spring and Autumn,but the summer mutation time was more close to the av-erage annual mutation time .
