干旱地区农业研究
榦旱地區農業研究
간한지구농업연구
AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH IN THE ARID AREAS
2013年
6期
238-242
,共5页
用水结构%用水量预测%BP模型%宝鸡市
用水結構%用水量預測%BP模型%寶鷄市
용수결구%용수량예측%BP모형%보계시
structure of water consumption%forecast of water consumption%BP model%Baoji City
以1996-2011年宝鸡市用水量为基础,对其用水结构、用水趋势进行分析,并利用回归分析,得到用水的驱动力因素:人口、第一产业增加值、工业增加值、农民人均纯收入和城镇居民可支配收入5个因子。以该驱动力因子为输入层,以农业用水、工业用水、生活用水为输出层建立人工神经网络BP模型,对宝鸡市2012-2020年各行业用水量进行预测,结果表明:至2020年,农业用水、工业用水和生活用水分别为4.43亿m3、0.57亿m3、1.31亿m3,预测效果良好,精度可靠。
以1996-2011年寶鷄市用水量為基礎,對其用水結構、用水趨勢進行分析,併利用迴歸分析,得到用水的驅動力因素:人口、第一產業增加值、工業增加值、農民人均純收入和城鎮居民可支配收入5箇因子。以該驅動力因子為輸入層,以農業用水、工業用水、生活用水為輸齣層建立人工神經網絡BP模型,對寶鷄市2012-2020年各行業用水量進行預測,結果錶明:至2020年,農業用水、工業用水和生活用水分彆為4.43億m3、0.57億m3、1.31億m3,預測效果良好,精度可靠。
이1996-2011년보계시용수량위기출,대기용수결구、용수추세진행분석,병이용회귀분석,득도용수적구동력인소:인구、제일산업증가치、공업증가치、농민인균순수입화성진거민가지배수입5개인자。이해구동력인자위수입층,이농업용수、공업용수、생활용수위수출층건립인공신경망락BP모형,대보계시2012-2020년각행업용수량진행예측,결과표명:지2020년,농업용수、공업용수화생활용수분별위4.43억m3、0.57억m3、1.31억m3,예측효과량호,정도가고。
Based on 1996-201 1 water consumptions in Baoji City,the structure and trend of water comsuption has been analyzed in this paper,obtained five influencing factors through regression analysis,namely population,the first in-dustrial added value,industrial added value,farmer’s net income per capita and net income of urban resident per capi-ta .Taking the influencing factors as input layer,the agriculture,industrial and domestic water consumption as output layer,established the BP model and forecasted the water consumption of each industry from 2012 to 2020 in Baoji City. The results shown that:The water consumption of agriculture,industry and domestic life were 4.43,0.57 and 1 .31 hundred million m3,respectively.The effect of prediction was good with reliable accuracy.