CAJ | 학술논문

黑泥湾滑坡是降雨诱发的一个土-岩接触面大型滑坡。基于野外详细调查基础上,探讨了黑泥湾滑坡的成灾模式,并利用水平投影法对滑坡多级潜在滑面进行了稳定性分析；在10年一遇降雨、50年一遇降雨及100年一遇降雨3种工况下,对黑泥湾滑坡开展了风险性评估、风险区划及社会风险评价。结果表明,黑泥湾滑坡财产最大风险为111.666万元/a,人口最大风险为0.00223人/a；同时区划结果显示①、②、③号受险区的单人生命风险最大,具有大于10-3的生命风险,其人口社会风险值已经处于不可接受风险区,应采取加强监测、搬迁避让、适当工程治理等方法进行风险控制,以达到防灾减灾的目的。
흑니만활파시강우유발적일개토-암접촉면대형활파。기우야외상세조사기출상,탐토료흑니만활파적성재모식,병이용수평투영법대활파다급잠재활면진행료은정성분석；재10년일우강우、50년일우강우급100년일우강우3충공황하,대흑니만활파개전료풍험성평고、풍험구화급사회풍험평개。결과표명,흑니만활파재산최대풍험위111.666만원/a,인구최대풍험위0.00223인/a；동시구화결과현시①、②、③호수험구적단인생명풍험최대,구유대우10-3적생명풍험,기인구사회풍험치이경처우불가접수풍험구,응채취가강감측、반천피양、괄당공정치리등방법진행풍험공제,이체도방재감재적목적。
Based on stability calculations of multistage potential sliding surface of Heiniwan landslide which caused by heavy rain in July 2013,risk assessment,risk zoning,and the evaluation of the social risk were respectively completed under three different conditions in this paper,namely heaviest rainfall in ten years,in fifty years and in a hundred years.After the superposition of single life risk,the risk map was finished.With the connection of the landslide social risk,the social risk of Heiniwan landslide was evaluated.The maximum property risk is 1, 116,660 RMB per year,while the maximum population at risk is 0.00223 a person per year.At the same time,division results show that danger zone ①,②,③have the greatest single life at risk,which is more than 1 0-3 life at risk;compared to international risk tolerance standard (F-N curve),the social risk value cannot be accepted.Therefore,it is necessary for local governments to strengthen such work as monitoring,relocation of local inhabitants and appropriate engineering control to avoid the risk.