CAJ | 학술논문

目的：评价神木县大气污染与儿童呼吸道感染住院人数的关系。方法收集2009年11月至2012年10月间神木县的气象因素（气温、相对湿度）和环境因素：二氧化硫（SO2）、二氧化氮（NO2）和可吸入颗粒物（PM10），以及16岁及以下儿童的住院资料。利用SAS 9．3对气象、环境因素和住院人数资料进行描述性分析，并判断主要污染物。利用R 3．0．1统计软件的建立Poisson回归的广义相加模型，引入大气污染物浓度及气象因素拟合线性模型，并考虑其滞后效应，评价主要大气污染物对儿童呼吸道感染住院的相对危险度。结果神木县的首要污染物为PM10，PM10与空气污染指数（ API）的相关系数为0．917，P＜0．01。在控制了长期趋势、“星期几效应”、气象因素及其它污染物的影响后发现，首要大气污染物PM10浓度每上升10μg／m3时，每日呼吸道感染住院患儿的上呼吸道相对危险度（RR）及其95％可信区间（95％CI）为1．002（0．996～1．007），t＝0．589，P＝0．556；下呼吸道为1．000（0．995～1．005），t＝－0．007，P＝0．995。当日或滞后1～10日内PM10浓度变化均不能显著改变儿童上、下呼吸道感染的住院率。结论神木县首要污染物PM10浓度变化对儿童上、下呼吸道感染的住院情况无明显影响。
목적：평개신목현대기오염여인동호흡도감염주원인수적관계。방법수집2009년11월지2012년10월간신목현적기상인소（기온、상대습도）화배경인소：이양화류（SO2）、이양화담（NO2）화가흡입과립물（PM10），이급16세급이하인동적주원자료。이용SAS 9．3대기상、배경인소화주원인수자료진행묘술성분석，병판단주요오염물。이용R 3．0．1통계연건적건립Poisson회귀적엄의상가모형，인입대기오염물농도급기상인소의합선성모형，병고필기체후효응，평개주요대기오염물대인동호흡도감염주원적상대위험도。결과신목현적수요오염물위PM10，PM10여공기오염지수（ API）적상관계수위0．917，P＜0．01。재공제료장기추세、“성기궤효응”、기상인소급기타오염물적영향후발현，수요대기오염물PM10농도매상승10μg／m3시，매일호흡도감염주원환인적상호흡도상대위험도（RR）급기95％가신구간（95％CI）위1．002（0．996～1．007），t＝0．589，P＝0．556；하호흡도위1．000（0．995～1．005），t＝－0．007，P＝0．995。당일혹체후1～10일내PM10농도변화균불능현저개변인동상、하호흡도감염적주원솔。결론신목현수요오염물PM10농도변화대인동상、하호흡도감염적주원정황무명현영향。
Objective To analyze the relationship between air pollution in Shenmu County and the number of hospitalized children with respiratory tract infections .Methods Data regarding meteorological factors ( temperature and relative humidity ) and environmental factors including SO2, NO2 and particulate matter 10 (PM10) in Shenmu County were collected, and the data regarding hospitalization of children under 16 years of age were also collected during the period of November 2009 to October 2012.SAS 9.3 was used to describe and analyze meteorological and environmental factors and the number of hospitalized patients and to determine the main air pollutants .Using statistical software R 3.0.1, a generalized additive Poisson regression model was established , the linear fitting models of the air pollutant concentrations and meteorological factors were introduced considering lag effect , and the relative risk of the main atmospheric pollutants on children hospitalization because of respiratory tract infections was evaluated .Results Primary air pollutant in Shenmu County was PM 10 and its Pearson correlation coefficient with air pollution index (API) was 0.917 (P<0.01).After controlling long-term climate trend,“week day effect”, meteorological factors and impact of other contaminants , it was found that when PM 10 concentration increased by 10μg/m3 , the RR and 95%CI of hospitalized children with upper respiratory tract infection was 1.002 (0.996-1.007) (t=0.589, P=0.556) and 1.000 (0.995-1.005) (t=-0.007, P=0.995) for lower respiratory tract infection .Change of PM10 concentration on the same day or during the lag of 1 to 10 days had no significant effect on children hospitalization rate because of upper and lower respiratory tract infections .Conclusion In Shenmu County the main pollutant PM 10 concentration has no significant effect on children hospitalization rate because of upper and lower respiratory tract infections .