CAJ | 학술논문

汇率预期主要通过货币替代效应、资产价格效应和进口价格效应影响物价水平。协整分析及残差替代法回归的结果表明：2002年以来的人民币升值预期对我国通货膨胀有显著影响，其中汇率预期主要通过货币替代效应渠道来影响国内的通货膨胀，资产价格效应渠道和进口价格效应渠道次之，本文针对这一现象给出了一些政策建议。
회솔예기주요통과화폐체대효응、자산개격효응화진구개격효응영향물개수평。협정분석급잔차체대법회귀적결과표명：2002년이래적인민폐승치예기대아국통화팽창유현저영향，기중회솔예기주요통과화폐체대효응거도래영향국내적통화팽창，자산개격효응거도화진구개격효응거도차지，본문침대저일현상급출료일사정책건의。
Exchange rate expectations affect commodity prices mainly by currency substitution effect, asset price effect and im-port price effect. The results of cointegration regression and residual substitution method show that the RMB appreciation expecta-tion since 2002 has significant impact on China’ s inflation, among which the exchange rate expectation affects domestic inflation chiefly by currency substitution effect channel, then by asset price effect channel and import price effect channel. This paper gives some policy suggestions based on this phenomenon.