CAJ | 학술논문

以13个省(区)1995-2011年林业产值数据为基础，利用动态偏离-份额分析法，分析我国南方集体林区林业经济增长、产业结构演变及其差异。结果表明：与全国整体水平相比，南方集体林区林业经济有着较快的增长速度和较好的林业产业结构素质，具有一定的区域竞争力优势，但林业第一产业增长速度和产业结构素质均低于全国平均水平，不具有区域竞争力优势，林业第二和第三产业增长速度和产业结构素质高于全国平均水平，具有区域竞争力优势；与南方集体林区整体水平相比，江苏、广东、安徽和广西4个省(区)的林业经济增长速度较高，江苏、浙江、福建、湖南和广东5省的林业产业结构素质较高，其中，又以前3个省(区)的林业产业结构素质优势最为明显，江苏、安徽、广东和广西4个省(区)的林业产业具有一定的区域整体竞争优势；进一步采用聚类分析方法，将南方集体林区13个省(区)林业产业发展类型区分为4类，即优势类型区、后发优势类型区、优势待提升类型区和优势滞后类型区，针对不同类型区的特点，提出相应对策建议。
이13개성(구)1995-2011년임업산치수거위기출，이용동태편리-빈액분석법，분석아국남방집체림구임업경제증장、산업결구연변급기차이。결과표명：여전국정체수평상비，남방집체림구임업경제유착교쾌적증장속도화교호적임업산업결구소질，구유일정적구역경쟁력우세，단임업제일산업증장속도화산업결구소질균저우전국평균수평，불구유구역경쟁력우세，임업제이화제삼산업증장속도화산업결구소질고우전국평균수평，구유구역경쟁력우세；여남방집체림구정체수평상비，강소、엄동、안휘화엄서4개성(구)적임업경제증장속도교고，강소、절강、복건、호남화엄동5성적임업산업결구소질교고，기중，우이전3개성(구)적임업산업결구소질우세최위명현，강소、안휘、엄동화엄서4개성(구)적임업산업구유일정적구역정체경쟁우세；진일보채용취류분석방법，장남방집체림구13개성(구)임업산업발전류형구분위4류，즉우세류형구、후발우세류형구、우세대제승류형구화우세체후류형구，침대불동류형구적특점，제출상응대책건의。
The study analyzed the economic growth,the industry evolution and its structure differences of the forestry using a dynamic shift share analysis,based on 17-year forestry outputs (from 1995 to 2011) of 13 provinces (autonomous regions) of the southern collective forestry region of China ( SCFRC) . Results indicated that the forestry economy in the SCFRC had a rapid growth rate and maintained better quality on forestry industry structure,bringing regional competitive advantages compared with the overall national level. The second and third industries of the forestry with regional competitive advantages had a higher growth rate and a higher quality on industrial structure than the whole nation while the primary industry does not. Compared with the SCFRC,forestry economic industry had maintained a high growth rate in Jiangsu,Guangdong,Anhui and Guangxi and the competitive advantages of the industry structure had been found in Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Fujian. The forestry industry had competitive advantages in Jiangsu,Anhui,Guangdong and Guangxi. The study further adopted a cluster analysis to divide the 13 provinces into four categories by forestry industry developing: the advantages type,industrial developing type,the advantage to be improved type,the advantage-lag type. The associated policy implications and suggestions were provided according to the characteristics of different developing paths.