CAJ | 학술논문

将基于最优插值(OI)的同化并行模块植入全谱空间的第三代海浪模式 WAVEWATCH III ver-sion3.14,建立数据同化的海浪模式预报系统,并通过实际的预报个例对同化系统进行检验。个例实验是以5°S以北的印度洋海域为目标计算区域,海面风场强迫采用业务单位的中尺度天气预报模式WRF (weather research and forecast)提供的逐时海面风场预报产品。模式积分过程中连续同化2010年12月15日、16日和17日过境北印度洋的Jason-2卫星高度计沿轨有效波高(SWH)数据(需要指出的是,每次同化得到新的SWH分析场后需重构相应的二维海浪谱用于谱模式)。SWH同化分析值和无同化的对照组分别与高度计沿轨观测数据比较发现,就日平均统计来看,同化较无同化使SWH分析值的均方根误差减小约25%~50%。以 SWH同化分析场作为初始场的预报表明,同化对预报影响的时效性可延长至48~60 h。本研究目的是通过将高度计测量的SWH数据同化到海浪模式进一步提升海浪数值预报的准确度。
장기우최우삽치(OI)적동화병행모괴식입전보공간적제삼대해랑모식 WAVEWATCH III ver-sion3.14,건립수거동화적해랑모식예보계통,병통과실제적예보개례대동화계통진행검험。개례실험시이5°S이북적인도양해역위목표계산구역,해면풍장강박채용업무단위적중척도천기예보모식WRF (weather research and forecast)제공적축시해면풍장예보산품。모식적분과정중련속동화2010년12월15일、16일화17일과경북인도양적Jason-2위성고도계연궤유효파고(SWH)수거(수요지출적시,매차동화득도신적SWH분석장후수중구상응적이유해랑보용우보모식)。SWH동화분석치화무동화적대조조분별여고도계연궤관측수거비교발현,취일평균통계래간,동화교무동화사SWH분석치적균방근오차감소약25%~50%。이 SWH동화분석장작위초시장적예보표명,동화대예보영향적시효성가연장지48~60 h。본연구목적시통과장고도계측량적SWH수거동화도해랑모식진일보제승해랑수치예보적준학도。
A parallel module of data assimilation based on optimal interpolation (OI) was developed and implanted into the full-spectral third-generation wind-wave model WAVEWATCH III version3.14, turning it into a data as-similative wave forecasting model. The north of 5°S in the Indian Ocean was chosen as the target computational domain, with its open boundary conditions provided by the global implementation of WAVEWATCH III. Hourly sea-surface wind velocities from routine output of an atmosphere model WRF (weather research and forecasting) were employed as surface forcing on the wave model. In the process of the model integration, significant wave height (SWH) data observed by Jason-2 satellite altimeter were assimilated consecutively from Dec. 15 to Dec. 17, 2010. It’s needed to note that after finishing assimilation each time, the updated analysis of SWH fields must be used to reconstruct the corresponding two-dimensional wave spectrum. The SWH Model from the assimilation run and the control run was compared with Jason-2 along-track SWH data. It was found that consecutive assimilation of the observed SWH data in each day reduced the root-mean-square error of analyzed SWH by approximately 25%~50%. Furthermore, the forecast made using the analyzed SWH as the initial field indicated that the effect of assimilation on the forecast may be memorized and retained as long as 48~60 hours. The purpose of this paper is to further improve the accuracy of wave forecast model by assimilating altimeter SWH data into the wave model.