未来与发展
未來與髮展
미래여발전
FUTURE AND DEVELOPMENT
2014年
9期
58-63
,共6页
人力资本%全要素生产率%脉冲效应%向量自回归模型
人力資本%全要素生產率%脈遲效應%嚮量自迴歸模型
인력자본%전요소생산솔%맥충효응%향량자회귀모형
human capital%TFP%impulsive effect%VAR model
人力资本是知识技术吸收和扩散的必要条件，是经济持续健康发展的基本前提。本文以省际面板数据为基础，构建VAR模型并运用脉冲响应和方差分解方法，分析人力资本变动对全要素生产率提高的长期动态影响效果。结果显示，人力资本增加能长期且显著地促进全要素生产率的提升。与短期促进效果相比，中长期效果更高。这一促进效果在第6期左右达到峰值。据此说明，人力资本重点投入对于经济发展具有重要意义，人力资本投资的优先原则应该得到重视。
人力資本是知識技術吸收和擴散的必要條件，是經濟持續健康髮展的基本前提。本文以省際麵闆數據為基礎，構建VAR模型併運用脈遲響應和方差分解方法，分析人力資本變動對全要素生產率提高的長期動態影響效果。結果顯示，人力資本增加能長期且顯著地促進全要素生產率的提升。與短期促進效果相比，中長期效果更高。這一促進效果在第6期左右達到峰值。據此說明，人力資本重點投入對于經濟髮展具有重要意義，人力資本投資的優先原則應該得到重視。
인력자본시지식기술흡수화확산적필요조건，시경제지속건강발전적기본전제。본문이성제면판수거위기출，구건VAR모형병운용맥충향응화방차분해방법，분석인력자본변동대전요소생산솔제고적장기동태영향효과。결과현시，인력자본증가능장기차현저지촉진전요소생산솔적제승。여단기촉진효과상비，중장기효과경고。저일촉진효과재제6기좌우체도봉치。거차설명，인력자본중점투입대우경제발전구유중요의의，인력자본투자적우선원칙응해득도중시。
Human capital is the requirement of absorption and diffusion of knowledge and technology. It is also the basic premise for the sustained and healthy economic development. In this paper, the total factor productivity of 1978-2009 has bee accounted by using China's provincial panel data. And the quantity of human capital is measured by the schooling years of labor. On this basis, this paper builds the VAR model, using the impulse response function and variance decomposition method, analyses the long-term dynamic effects of human capital growth to improve total factor productivity. The results showed, human capital growth makes a long-term and significant effect to promote total factor productivity. Compared with the promoting effect of short-term, long-term effect is much higher. From the impulse response effect, this effect reached the peak value at about sixth period. Accordingly, human capital invest plays an important role in economic development. The principle of giving priority to investment in human capital should be valued.
