CAJ | 학술논문

根据山东省多年地下水水质监测资料，选取水质变化大、监测资料较为齐全的典型岩溶水水源地，采用均值自回归模型，研究水质历时变化规律和演化趋势。现状经济社会发展环境和开采条件下，预测2020年、2030年典型水源地水质呈劣向演化趋势，部分水源地主要组分含量将达Ⅳ类或Ⅴ类水，部分单项指标含量将超过生活饮用水卫生标准，原本优质饮用地下水供水前景堪忧，加强水源地外部环境保护和调蓄岩溶水系统资源量是防治水质恶化的主体内容。
근거산동성다년지하수수질감측자료，선취수질변화대、감측자료교위제전적전형암용수수원지，채용균치자회귀모형，연구수질력시변화규률화연화추세。현상경제사회발전배경화개채조건하，예측2020년、2030년전형수원지수질정렬향연화추세，부분수원지주요조분함량장체Ⅳ류혹Ⅴ류수，부분단항지표함량장초과생활음용수위생표준，원본우질음용지하수공수전경감우，가강수원지외부배경보호화조축암용수계통자원량시방치수질악화적주체내용。
According to monitoring datas of underground water in many years,choosing typical water source areas which have large change in water quality and complete and typical karst goundwater source,adopting the mean val-ue autoregressive model,variation and evolution trend of water quality have been studied.It predicates the evolu-tion trend of water quality will be bad in 2020 and 2030,the contents of key components will be the water standardⅣorⅤin most water source areas,the contents of most single indexes will exceed the hygienic standard for drink-ing water.In order to prevent the water quality deterioration,it is important to strengthen the external environment protection of water source area and regulate karst water resource quantity.