CAJ | 학술논문

为适应我国载人航天任务的新特点，有效支持空间站量化风险评价工作，调研了美国国家航空航天局（ NASA ）载人登月、国际空间站、航天飞机等载人航天项目的概率风险评价（ PRA）工作，对比分析了PRA方法在不同载人航天项目中的应用效果。在此基础上，针对我国空间站工程的特点，初步提出了基于PRA的空间站工程量化风险评价方案与工作思路，对该方法在我国空间站实施所存在的问题进行了分析，并在方法规范、数据收集等方面提出了工作建议，为我国空间站量化风险评估工作提供技术支持。
위괄응아국재인항천임무적신특점，유효지지공간참양화풍험평개공작，조연료미국국가항공항천국（ NASA ）재인등월、국제공간참、항천비궤등재인항천항목적개솔풍험평개（ PRA）공작，대비분석료PRA방법재불동재인항천항목중적응용효과。재차기출상，침대아국공간참공정적특점，초보제출료기우PRA적공간참공정양화풍험평개방안여공작사로，대해방법재아국공간참실시소존재적문제진행료분석，병재방법규범、수거수집등방면제출료공작건의，위아국공간참양화풍험평고공작제공기술지지。
To adapt to the new characteristics of manned space missions in China and to effectively support the quantitative risk assessment for the Chinese space station , the Probabilistic Risk Assess-ment ( PRA) work of National Aeronautics and Space Administration ( NASA ) was surveyed and PRA application demonstration in different types of manned space programs , such as the CEV , ISS and Space Shuttle were studied .Application results of PRA in those programs were analyzed .Then based on the characteristics of Chinese manned space station , the scheme and considerations of the PRA-based space station quantification risk assessment was put forward , and the existing problems of technology application were analyzed .In the end, some suggestions on the methods , norms and data sampling were also proposed which may provide technical support for space station quantification risk assessment work in China .