CAJ | 학술논문

在建立理论模型基础上，以15个新兴市场国家为对象，采用面板协整方法，实证研究了FDI与汇率风险的关系，用动态GMM来考察FDI与汇率风险短期变动关系，并在此基础上得出FDI与汇率风险长期关系。研究发现，FDI对汇率风险的影响具有“门槛效应”。短期内，FDI的流入减少东道国汇率风险，但从长远看将增大汇率风险。最后根据新兴市场国家的研究结论，对我国提出建立健全FDI企业信息反馈共享预警机制、根据发展水平来推行FDI的经济政策、设立人民币汇率的目标区等相关政策建议。
재건립이론모형기출상，이15개신흥시장국가위대상，채용면판협정방법，실증연구료FDI여회솔풍험적관계，용동태GMM래고찰FDI여회솔풍험단기변동관계，병재차기출상득출FDI여회솔풍험장기관계。연구발현，FDI대회솔풍험적영향구유“문함효응”。단기내，FDI적류입감소동도국회솔풍험，단종장원간장증대회솔풍험。최후근거신흥시장국가적연구결론，대아국제출건립건전FDI기업신식반궤공향예경궤제、근거발전수평래추행FDI적경제정책、설립인민폐회솔적목표구등상관정책건의。
Based on a self-built theoretical model,and with the cases of 15 emerging economies as the ob-ject of study,this empirical research adopts the panel co-integration method in exploring the relation between FDI and exchange risk.Dynamic GMM is used to investigate the short-term relation between FDI and exchange risk,which serves as the basis for the evaluation of the long-term relationship between FDI and exchange risks. The research finds that there exists a “threshold effect”in FDI′s impact on exchange risk.In the short term, the inflow of FDI helps reduce exchange risk in the hosting country.But in the long run,such inflows can in-crease the exchange risk.Finally,based on the study of these emerging economies,suggestions are given to China′s construction of a refined warning system relying on FDI enterprise information sharing,and to the for-mulation of such policies as promoting FDI in accordance with the level of development,and setting the target zone for RMB exchange rate and so on.