CAJ | 학술논문

科学预防高校突发事件发生对维护高校乃至社会稳定具有重要意义。为建立和完善预警机制，提高应急管理能力，本文针对高校突发事件监测预警复杂性，提出一种预警评估新方法。该方法首先采用Delphi法建立预警评估的指标集，并将Delphi和AHP方法集成（Delphi AHP）来确定各指标权重；在预警评估阶段采用加权集值统计法（weighted set valued statistics ， WSVS），避免了以往评价中采用点估计所带来的不准确性。最后，以学生公寓突发火灾事件为例表明，采用该模型确定预警等级并进行预警发布具有可行性与有效性。
과학예방고교돌발사건발생대유호고교내지사회은정구유중요의의。위건립화완선예경궤제，제고응급관리능력，본문침대고교돌발사건감측예경복잡성，제출일충예경평고신방법。해방법수선채용Delphi법건립예경평고적지표집，병장Delphi화AHP방법집성（Delphi AHP）래학정각지표권중；재예경평고계단채용가권집치통계법（weighted set valued statistics ， WSVS），피면료이왕평개중채용점고계소대래적불준학성。최후，이학생공우돌발화재사건위례표명，채용해모형학정예경등급병진행예경발포구유가행성여유효성。
It is very important to scientifically prevent the emergencies in colleges and universities for maintaining the stability of the society.To establish and perfect the pre-warning mechanism and promote the ability of emer-gency management, a new method is developed in this paper to deal with the complexity of the pre-warning assessment for the emergencies in universities.We first establish the index system for the pre-warning assessment with the Delphi method, and then weigh these indexes by combination of Delphi and AHP methods .In an assess-ment phase, the weighted set-valued statistics(WSVS)is employed rather than the commonly used point estima-tion method, which is believed to bring inaccuracy.An application of our method for assessing the risk of a dor-mitory fire emergency is also shown in our paper .It is proved that the model is feasible and valid in setting the pre-warning level and releasing pre-warning signals.