CAJ | 학술논문

本文在垂直创新模型框架下，将能耗强度和碳减排比例引入生产函数，将人们对气候变化的警惕意识引入效用函数，建立了一个动态的内生低碳经济增长模型。通过求解所建动态优化模型，找到了经济长期均衡增长的最优路径，讨论了能源强度和能源消费结构变化与经济均衡增长的相互关系，分析了各参数对经济最优增长路径的影响，比较了化石能源内部消费结构不变和逐年清洁两种情景下的经济最优增长路径的异同。长期来看，能源强度、二氧化碳减排速率与经济增长率有相互的负向线性关系，缩小反映化石能源内部消费结构的综合碳排放系数对经济增长有促进作用。非化石能源比例越高，低碳技术应用越广泛，研发成果对技术积累的贡献率越大，消费者对当前消费的偏好程度越小，人们对气候变化的警惕意识越强，则越有利于经济的低碳发展。
본문재수직창신모형광가하，장능모강도화탄감배비례인입생산함수，장인문대기후변화적경척의식인입효용함수，건립료일개동태적내생저탄경제증장모형。통과구해소건동태우화모형，조도료경제장기균형증장적최우로경，토론료능원강도화능원소비결구변화여경제균형증장적상호관계，분석료각삼수대경제최우증장로경적영향，비교료화석능원내부소비결구불변화축년청길량충정경하적경제최우증장로경적이동。장기래간，능원강도、이양화탄감배속솔여경제증장솔유상호적부향선성관계，축소반영화석능원내부소비결구적종합탄배방계수대경제증장유촉진작용。비화석능원비례월고，저탄기술응용월엄범，연발성과대기술적루적공헌솔월대，소비자대당전소비적편호정도월소，인문대기후변화적경척의식월강，칙월유리우경제적저탄발전。
In the framework of a vertical innovation model , energy intensity and rate of carbon dioxide abatement are both all put into the production function .Alert awareness towards climate change is put into utility function . A dynamic optimization model of the endogenous low-carbon economic growth is established.Through solving the dynamic optimization model, the optimal path of a long-term economic equilibrium growth is found .The interre-lationship of energy intensity, energy consumption structure, rate of carbon dioxide abatement and economic growth are all discussed.The influence of various parameters on path of the optimal economic growth is analyzed . Paths of the optimal economic growth are compared in two scenarios of the internal structure of fossil energy con -sumption.In the long term, energy intensity and rate of carbon dioxide abatement have mutual negative linear relationship with economic growth.Reducing the comprehensive coefficient of carbon emissions which reflects the internal structure of fossil energy consumption could promote economic growth .Increasing the share of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption , widely using low carbon technology , improving the contribution of technolo-gy accumulation from research and development , reducing preference to the current consumption , and strengthe-ning awareness towards climate change would be beneficial to promoting low -carbon economic development .