CAJ | 학술논문

突变现象是系统发展过程中的一种不连续、不平滑现象，这种现象在经济系统里时有发生。通过系统分析我国的广义虚拟资产行业现有历史数据，结合主成分分析、多元数据拟合等多元统计分析技术和突变理论，建立一个广义虚拟资产的尖点突变预警模型。模型直观、动态、系统的反映广义虚拟资产历史数据及当前趋势，实时预警广义虚拟资产市场可能发生的系统性突变，为政府针对广义虚拟资产的宏观经济调控提供政策性建议，为维护我国宏观经济的平稳、健康发展提供理论支持。
돌변현상시계통발전과정중적일충불련속、불평활현상，저충현상재경제계통리시유발생。통과계통분석아국적엄의허의자산행업현유역사수거，결합주성분분석、다원수거의합등다원통계분석기술화돌변이론，건립일개엄의허의자산적첨점돌변예경모형。모형직관、동태、계통적반영엄의허의자산역사수거급당전추세，실시예경엄의허의자산시장가능발생적계통성돌변，위정부침대엄의허의자산적굉관경제조공제공정책성건의，위유호아국굉관경제적평은、건강발전제공이론지지。
Catastrophe is a phenomenon that uncontinuous and unsmooth,It occurs in the economic system frequently. The generalized virtual assets is essential for the government as well as the populace in China.The paper established the cusp catastrophe warning model for the generalized virtual assets in China based on the principal component analysis,multiple linear regression method and the catastrophe theory.The model dis-plays the trend of the generalized virtual economy visually,dynamically and systematically and early warns whether the generalized virtual economy in China occurs an catastrophe.