广义虚拟经济研究
廣義虛擬經濟研究
엄의허의경제연구
RESEARCH ON THE GENERLIZED FICTITIOUS ECONOMY
2014年
2期
65-71
,共7页
三变量模型%虚拟经济%金融危机%经济增长%恩格尔系数
三變量模型%虛擬經濟%金融危機%經濟增長%恩格爾繫數
삼변량모형%허의경제%금융위궤%경제증장%은격이계수
three variables model%ifctitious economy%ifnance crisis%economic growth%Engel’s coefifcient
三变量模型反映了平均经济增长率(x)和经济周期(n)与恩格尔系数(r)之间存在如下关系：(n-1)x=-ln(1-r)。利用三变量模型计算中、美、日三国不同时期的经济周期和增长率时会产生较大的误差，分析发现误差与各国虚拟经济对GDP增长的贡献率一致。计算结果表明，美国虚拟经济的占比（GDP%）在不断提高，而对经济增长的贡献率却在下降这一事实，从而找到金融危机发生的数量基础。三变量模型暗示了凯恩斯政策只是在民众的消费系数不太高，恩格尔系数不太低，民众储蓄率较高的情况下才是科学。
三變量模型反映瞭平均經濟增長率(x)和經濟週期(n)與恩格爾繫數(r)之間存在如下關繫：(n-1)x=-ln(1-r)。利用三變量模型計算中、美、日三國不同時期的經濟週期和增長率時會產生較大的誤差，分析髮現誤差與各國虛擬經濟對GDP增長的貢獻率一緻。計算結果錶明，美國虛擬經濟的佔比（GDP%）在不斷提高，而對經濟增長的貢獻率卻在下降這一事實，從而找到金融危機髮生的數量基礎。三變量模型暗示瞭凱恩斯政策隻是在民衆的消費繫數不太高，恩格爾繫數不太低，民衆儲蓄率較高的情況下纔是科學。
삼변량모형반영료평균경제증장솔(x)화경제주기(n)여은격이계수(r)지간존재여하관계：(n-1)x=-ln(1-r)。이용삼변량모형계산중、미、일삼국불동시기적경제주기화증장솔시회산생교대적오차，분석발현오차여각국허의경제대GDP증장적공헌솔일치。계산결과표명，미국허의경제적점비（GDP%）재불단제고，이대경제증장적공헌솔각재하강저일사실，종이조도금융위궤발생적수량기출。삼변량모형암시료개은사정책지시재민음적소비계수불태고，은격이계수불태저，민음저축솔교고적정황하재시과학。
Three variables model, or the law of periodic growth in economy, quantitatively, which shows as there is a quantity relation of (n-1) x=-ln(1-r) among growth period length (n), average growth rate (x) and Engel’s coefifcient (r). By the three variables model, we computed the average growth rate or growth period length of China, the United States and Japan, and discovered that the calculation error is equal to the levels or rates of ifctitious economy’s making a contributions to GDP growth in the three nations. Our computing indicates that the scale (GDP%)of ifctitious economy grew in America but made a contributions to GDP growth falling, which bore responsibility for 2008 ifnance crisis. The three variables model suggested that Keynes’policy was a science when the denizen’s saving rate was high, Engel’s coefifcient not very low and expenditure coefifcient not very high.
