CAJ | 학술논문

在分析随机因素对水位模拟结果影响程度的基础上建立地下水流随机模拟模型，可为地下水资源风险管理和决策提供重要依据。以浑河冲洪积扇地区为研究区，基于蒙特卡罗原理建立了区域地下水流随机预报模型，对压采条件下的地下水位上升进行风险预测和评价。参数灵敏度分析结果表明，地下水水位对含水层渗透系数的变化最敏感，其次是给水度，而对河床沉积物渗透系数和降雨入渗补给系数的灵敏性较差，且渗透系数和给水度在其率定值附近增加或减少时，灵敏度系数随之增加或减小。研究表明，压缩开采地下水资源能够有效缓解地下水水位下降带来的环境问题，地下水开采量以每年5％的速度压采时，区内地下水水位平均上涨3．3 m，但水位恢复的同时也可能诱发局部地下工程渗水，且地下建筑物的设计安全水位越低，渗水风险越大。
재분석수궤인소대수위모의결과영향정도적기출상건입지하수류수궤모의모형，가위지하수자원풍험관리화결책제공중요의거。이혼하충홍적선지구위연구구，기우몽특잡라원리건립료구역지하수류수궤예보모형，대압채조건하적지하수위상승진행풍험예측화평개。삼수령민도분석결과표명，지하수수위대함수층삼투계수적변화최민감，기차시급수도，이대하상침적물삼투계수화강우입삼보급계수적령민성교차，차삼투계수화급수도재기솔정치부근증가혹감소시，령민도계수수지증가혹감소。연구표명，압축개채지하수자원능구유효완해지하수수위하강대래적배경문제，지하수개채량이매년5％적속도압채시，구내지하수수위평균상창3．3 m，단수위회복적동시야가능유발국부지하공정삼수，차지하건축물적설계안전수위월저，삼수풍험월대。
Based on the analysis of the influence of random factors to water level simulation results, groundwater flow stochastic simulation model could provide important basis for risk management and decision-making of groundwater resources.The authors took Hun River’s alluvial fan as research area, adopted the Monte-Carlo method to build random forecast model of regional groundwater and forecast the risks of rising groundwater level under compressive exploitation.The results indicate that,hydraulic conductivity is the most sensitive factor for groundwater levels,and the specific yield is the secondary sensitive factor.The sensitivities of hydraulic conductivity of riverbed and infiltration coefficient of precipitation have lower sensitivity,and the sensitivities is proportional to the hydraulic and specific yield.Although compressing the exploitation quantity of groundwater can effectively prevent the cone of depression to expand,under the condition of compressive exploit of groundwater at an annual rate of 5.0%,the groundwater water level will rise in the average of 3.3 m.However,it will also bring groundwater seepage risks to underground engineering, and the lower the safe groundwater level designed,the higher risk of groundwater seepage to the underground engineering.