南水北调与水利科技
南水北調與水利科技
남수북조여수리과기
SOUTH-TO-NORTH WATER
2014年
5期
118-123
,共6页
降水量%Morlet 小波%Mann-Kendall%Mann-Whit ney-Pettitt%线性倾向估计%时空演变%滨江流域
降水量%Morlet 小波%Mann-Kendall%Mann-Whit ney-Pettitt%線性傾嚮估計%時空縯變%濱江流域
강수량%Morlet 소파%Mann-Kendall%Mann-Whit ney-Pettitt%선성경향고계%시공연변%빈강류역
precipitat ion%Morlet w avelet%Mann-Kendall%Mann-Whitney-Pett it%linear trend estimat ion%spatial and temporal vari-ations%Binjiang River basin
为探讨北江一级支流滨江流域年内降水量的时空演变规律,以1965年-2011年逐日降水观测资料为研究数据,利用 Morlet 小波分析、Mann-Kendall 检验、M ann-Whitney- Pettitt 检定方法及线性倾向估计法,对各月降水量进行分析。结果表明：汛期中流域内降水量空间差异明显,由西北向东南呈增加趋势；在时间分布上,5月、6月的多年平均降水量最大,是防洪的重点关注期,受气流及地形影响,非汛期、汛期初和汛期末降水量比较均匀；各月降水量变化主要存在4~8 a 的短周期及11~14 a、16~19 a 和27~29 a 的中长周期；4月份全流域降水量显著减少,且在2001年发生显著性突变,而5月份流域南部降水量显著减少,且在1989年发生显著性突变。
為探討北江一級支流濱江流域年內降水量的時空縯變規律,以1965年-2011年逐日降水觀測資料為研究數據,利用 Morlet 小波分析、Mann-Kendall 檢驗、M ann-Whitney- Pettitt 檢定方法及線性傾嚮估計法,對各月降水量進行分析。結果錶明：汛期中流域內降水量空間差異明顯,由西北嚮東南呈增加趨勢；在時間分佈上,5月、6月的多年平均降水量最大,是防洪的重點關註期,受氣流及地形影響,非汛期、汛期初和汛期末降水量比較均勻；各月降水量變化主要存在4~8 a 的短週期及11~14 a、16~19 a 和27~29 a 的中長週期；4月份全流域降水量顯著減少,且在2001年髮生顯著性突變,而5月份流域南部降水量顯著減少,且在1989年髮生顯著性突變。
위탐토북강일급지류빈강류역년내강수량적시공연변규률,이1965년-2011년축일강수관측자료위연구수거,이용 Morlet 소파분석、Mann-Kendall 검험、M ann-Whitney- Pettitt 검정방법급선성경향고계법,대각월강수량진행분석。결과표명：신기중류역내강수량공간차이명현,유서북향동남정증가추세；재시간분포상,5월、6월적다년평균강수량최대,시방홍적중점관주기,수기류급지형영향,비신기、신기초화신기말강수량비교균균；각월강수량변화주요존재4~8 a 적단주기급11~14 a、16~19 a 화27~29 a 적중장주기；4월빈전류역강수량현저감소,차재2001년발생현저성돌변,이5월빈류역남부강수량현저감소,차재1989년발생현저성돌변。
In order to investigate the spatial and temporal variations of precipitat ion in the Binjiang River basin, the daily precipi-tat ion dat a from 1965 to 2011 w ere selected and the Morlet w avelet analysis, M ann-Kendall t est, Mann-Whitney-Pett itt verifica-tion method, and linear trend est imation method w ere performed to analyze the monthly precipitation in t he basin. The results show ed that during the f lood season, precipitat ion shows an apparently spatial difference w ith an increasing f rom the northw est to the southeast; average precipitations in May and June are the largest and close attention needs to be paid for f lood cont rol;during the non-flood seasons, the beginning and the end of flood seasons, precipitat ions are evenly distributed and influenced by the airstream and topography; monthly precipitations show short cycle of 4~ 8 a, and intermediate and long cycles of 11~ 14 a, 16~ 19 a, and 27~ 29 a; and precipitat ion in April decreases significant ly and has mutation in 2001 in the whole river basin, while precipitation in May decreases significant ly and has mutation in 1989 in the south of the river basin.
