CAJ | 학술논문

　　2008年美国次贷危机爆发后，研究金融危机爆发的前兆及形成原因重新成为热点。本文选取自美国二战之后至2008年间美国的6次经济、金融危机为样本，通过对危机爆发前3年各经济指标的关联度及其稳定性进行计量分析，发现广义货币供给量和联邦基金利率在每次危机爆发前都有稳定的“表现”，说明这两个指标的变动能够较好地预示经济、金融危机爆发的可能性。本文的政策含义是：多数经济、金融危机都是政策性的，长时间过多的货币供给量和过低的利率是导致经济、金融危机爆发的一般原因。防范经济、金融危机首先要从“审慎政策”入手。
　　2008년미국차대위궤폭발후，연구금융위궤폭발적전조급형성원인중신성위열점。본문선취자미국이전지후지2008년간미국적6차경제、금융위궤위양본，통과대위궤폭발전3년각경제지표적관련도급기은정성진행계량분석，발현엄의화폐공급량화련방기금리솔재매차위궤폭발전도유은정적“표현”，설명저량개지표적변동능구교호지예시경제、금융위궤폭발적가능성。본문적정책함의시：다수경제、금융위궤도시정책성적，장시간과다적화폐공급량화과저적리솔시도치경제、금융위궤폭발적일반원인。방범경제、금융위궤수선요종“심신정책”입수。
Since the subprime credit crisis in United States 2008, the research on prediction of financial crisis and reason for its formation again has become a hot topic. In this paper, six samples of the financial crises occurring in America since WWII are chosen and an empirical study is carried out. The conclusion is that broaden currency supply volume and federal re-serves fund rate have stable performances in each crisis. It indicates they are the most possible indexes, which signal the advent of a crisis. The findings have the following policy implications:most crises are the result of overdone governmental policy;and long-lasting, excessive currency supply volume and low interest rate are the general reasons for a financial crisis. So prevention of a financial crisis should begin with prudential policy operation.