CAJ | 학술논문

东北地区是中国重要的粮食生产基地。近50 a中国东北地区正经历着一次显著的增温过程，年平均气温每10a增加0.38℃。明确气候变化对东北春玉米产量的影响以及新品种对产量的贡献对实际生产有重要的指导意义。该文利用通过参数调试与验证后的APSIM-Maize模型，对吉林梨树县春玉米的产量潜力进行模拟分析，解析了不同年代育成的玉米品种的产量潜力，明确了气候变化对春玉米产量潜力的影响以及品种对增产的贡献。结果表明，假设1961-2010年种植的玉米品种不改变，种植20世纪60年代的农家种50 a平均产量潜力为7879 kg/hm2，种植70年代育成品种50 a 平均产量潜力为11482 kg/hm2，种植80年代育成品种50 a 平均产量潜力为12148 kg/hm2，种植90年代育成品种50 a平均产量潜力为13400 kg/hm2，种植2000年以后育成的玉米品种50 a平均产量潜力为14139 kg/hm2，随玉米品种育成年代的后移而增大；1961-2010年随着新品种的育成而不断更替品种时，产量潜力50 a平均值为11537 kg/hm2。在栽培管理措施不改变的条件下，1961-2010年种植同一品种，产量潜力呈下降的趋势，气候变化对玉米产量潜力的影响表现出负效应，减产率在22%～26%，生育阶段内日照时数的下降是产量潜力下降的主要气候因素；当品种不断更替时，玉米的产量潜力呈上升的趋势，新品种的增产贡献率为46.1%～79.0%，品种的改良对气候变化的负效应有一定的补偿作用；新玉米品种从开花到成熟生育阶段天数延长，成熟期生物量和收获指数增大有利于产量的提高。
동북지구시중국중요적양식생산기지。근50 a중국동북지구정경력착일차현저적증온과정，년평균기온매10a증가0.38℃。명학기후변화대동북춘옥미산량적영향이급신품충대산량적공헌대실제생산유중요적지도의의。해문이용통과삼수조시여험증후적APSIM-Maize모형，대길림리수현춘옥미적산량잠력진행모의분석，해석료불동년대육성적옥미품충적산량잠력，명학료기후변화대춘옥미산량잠력적영향이급품충대증산적공헌。결과표명，가설1961-2010년충식적옥미품충불개변，충식20세기60년대적농가충50 a평균산량잠력위7879 kg/hm2，충식70년대육성품충50 a 평균산량잠력위11482 kg/hm2，충식80년대육성품충50 a 평균산량잠력위12148 kg/hm2，충식90년대육성품충50 a평균산량잠력위13400 kg/hm2，충식2000년이후육성적옥미품충50 a평균산량잠력위14139 kg/hm2，수옥미품충육성년대적후이이증대；1961-2010년수착신품충적육성이불단경체품충시，산량잠력50 a평균치위11537 kg/hm2。재재배관리조시불개변적조건하，1961-2010년충식동일품충，산량잠력정하강적추세，기후변화대옥미산량잠력적영향표현출부효응，감산솔재22%～26%，생육계단내일조시수적하강시산량잠력하강적주요기후인소；당품충불단경체시，옥미적산량잠력정상승적추세，신품충적증산공헌솔위46.1%～79.0%，품충적개량대기후변화적부효응유일정적보상작용；신옥미품충종개화도성숙생육계단천수연장，성숙기생물량화수획지수증대유리우산량적제고。
A significant warming of the regional climate with a 0.38℃·(10a)-1 rise in annual air temperature has occurred in Northeast China, which is one of the major agricultural production areas in China. It is essential to investigate the impact of climate change on the potential yield for spring maize, of which the total yield accounts for 30%of the nation’s production, and to demonstrate the contributions of new varieties to the yield increases. In this study, potential yields for different varieties of spring maize which was bred in different eras was analyzed, and the impacts of climate change on the potential yield of spring maize and the contributions of the spring maize varieties to the yield increases were analyzed. The APSIM-Maize model was calibrated and validated using the data obtained through field experiments in Lishu Jilin from 2010 to 2011. The validated model was then used to simulate potential yields for different varieties of spring maize. Guarantee rates and partial correlation analysis were introduced to analyze the impact of climate change on maize potential yield. Our results indicated, when the varieties did not change, the 50-year average potential yields of different spring maize varieties, which were bred in the 1960 s, 1970 s, 1980 s, 1990 s, and 2000 s are 7 879 kg/hm2, 11 482 kg/hm-2, 12 148 kg/hm2, 13 400 kg/hm2, and 14 139 kg/hm2 respectively, and increase as the bred eras became later;the average potential yield from 1961 to 2010 was 11 537 kg/hm2 when the varieties changed as new varieties bred. The potential yield decreased when the same hybrid was specified in APSIM for all years, if there were no changes of cultivation and management measures. Climate change showed a negative impact on the potential yield on maize, decreased by 22%-26%, and the decrease of the sunshine hour in the growing period is the main reason that led to a potential yield decline. However if the varieties change continually from 1961 to 2010, the potential yield showed an increasing trend, which indicated that the contributions of new varieties were 46.1%-79.0%. Therefore, the variety improvement of spring maize has compensated for the negative effect of climate change. The increases of the length of the growing period from blossom to maturity, aboveground biomass and harvest index of new varieties were beneficial to yield increases. Therefore, choosing good varieties with a longer growing period and optimizing the planting structure are important approaches to increasing production.