CAJ | 학술논문

人群感知是气候变化适应行为形成的重要信息基础,基于对中国北方草地草甸草原、典型草原、荒漠草原、草原化荒漠、沙地、农牧交错带等地区1292个牧户的问卷访谈,分2轮调查研究了不同草地类型地区牧民对气候变化的感知,与气候实值比较分析,并研究了牧民气候变化感知的偏差途径,结果表明：1980~2009年间研究区温度变化倾向率为0.63℃/10a(P<0.01),升高显著,而降水变化不明显(-8.48mm/10a,P>0.05)；温度较强的趋势性与牧民对其感知的分歧存在偏差,降水无明显变化与不同地区牧民感知明确的趋势性判断存在偏差；受草场变化等环境信息的传导是气候变化感知偏差形成的重要原因,其中,降水感知与环境感知之间具有较强的关系,存在明显的传导过程,而温度感知的传导性不明显；通过Probit模型分析显示,气候变化传导感知与否主要与牧户距离行政中心距离、户主年龄、教育背景、载畜水平、草畜资源等因素有关.
인군감지시기후변화괄응행위형성적중요신식기출,기우대중국북방초지초전초원、전형초원、황막초원、초원화황막、사지、농목교착대등지구1292개목호적문권방담,분2륜조사연구료불동초지류형지구목민대기후변화적감지,여기후실치비교분석,병연구료목민기후변화감지적편차도경,결과표명：1980~2009년간연구구온도변화경향솔위0.63℃/10a(P<0.01),승고현저,이강수변화불명현(-8.48mm/10a,P>0.05)；온도교강적추세성여목민대기감지적분기존재편차,강수무명현변화여불동지구목민감지명학적추세성판단존재편차；수초장변화등배경신식적전도시기후변화감지편차형성적중요원인,기중,강수감지여배경감지지간구유교강적관계,존재명현적전도과정,이온도감지적전도성불명현；통과Probit모형분석현시,기후변화전도감지여부주요여목호거리행정중심거리、호주년령、교육배경、재축수평、초축자원등인소유관.
Perception is an important information basic of human adaptation to climate change. We researched herders’ perception to climate change and its deviant path at different grassland resources levels, which included 1292households in northern grassland of China such as meadow steppe, typical steppe, desert steppe, steppe desert, sand land and agro-pastoral area. The temperature was significantly rise by 0.63℃/10a (P<0.01) in 1980~2009. However, there was no significant change about precipitation (-8.48mm/10a,P>0.05). Majority of respondents considered precipitation have been deceasing in past 30years, whereas no significant difference was detected by actual precipitation data. Unlike precipitation perception, herders had no clear judgment to temperature change. The conduction of pasture information was an important reason of herders’ bias in climate change. Precipitation but temperature had a good relationship to herders’ climate change perception. Climate conduction perception was influenced by the distances to administration center, the householder age, educational background, carrying level, grassland-livestock resources and so on.