CAJ | 학술논문

随着开采难度的增加，化石能源生产过程中的能源消耗量不断增长，可供于经济社会能够真正使用的净能源量也随之变动，这将对我国的经济增长产生不可估量的影响。基于此，本文从“净能源”角度提出化石能源供应净量的概念，并预测至2025年我国化石能源产量、净进口量、生产过程中的消耗量；进而，将取得的重要参数和预测数据应用到能源型生产函数中，通过Lingo软件模拟出化石能源供应净量的变动对我国经济增长的影响，计算得出：在基准情景下，我国GDP增速呈逐步放缓的趋势，2011-2015年间为9.26%，2016-2020年间为6.01%，2021-2025年间为4.29%，目前正处于高速增长阶段过渡到中速增长阶段甚至是低速增长阶段的新时期。
수착개채난도적증가，화석능원생산과정중적능원소모량불단증장，가공우경제사회능구진정사용적정능원량야수지변동，저장대아국적경제증장산생불가고량적영향。기우차，본문종“정능원”각도제출화석능원공응정량적개념，병예측지2025년아국화석능원산량、정진구량、생산과정중적소모량；진이，장취득적중요삼수화예측수거응용도능원형생산함수중，통과Lingo연건모의출화석능원공응정량적변동대아국경제증장적영향，계산득출：재기준정경하，아국GDP증속정축보방완적추세，2011-2015년간위9.26%，2016-2020년간위6.01%，2021-2025년간위4.29%，목전정처우고속증장계단과도도중속증장계단심지시저속증장계단적신시기。
The energy consumption for producing fossil fuels has been increasing because it is more and more difficult to ext-ract fossil fuels, and the net energy, which is available to be consumed for the economy and society, has changed. It will have great impacts on China's economic growth. Hence, firstly, a new definition of "net energy supply" is proposed, and forecasted the fossil fuels production, net energy imports and energy consumption in production process till 2025. Secondly, economic growth trend in China influenced by energy production, which can use the function through Lingo software, is predicted. The results shows that China's economic growth rate will decline from 9.26% in 2011-2015 to 4.29% in 2021-2025 with the basic scenario , and means China will be in the transition stage.