CAJ | 학술논문

机场地面集疏运系统是机场发展的重要支撑，交通需求预测是进行机场集疏运交通规划的前提。笔者以四阶段预测的基本原理为基础，结合机场集疏运需求特点，对预测的整体思路、方法、步骤和内容等进行详细分析，优化调整出行分布、方式划分预测模型，并以南京禄口国际机场为实例进行了预测。研究成果对国内同类大型机场的集疏运需求预测具有借鉴和参考价值。
궤장지면집소운계통시궤장발전적중요지탱，교통수구예측시진행궤장집소운교통규화적전제。필자이사계단예측적기본원리위기출，결합궤장집소운수구특점，대예측적정체사로、방법、보취화내용등진행상세분석，우화조정출행분포、방식화분예측모형，병이남경록구국제궤장위실례진행료예측。연구성과대국내동류대형궤장적집소운수구예측구유차감화삼고개치。
Ground transportation system is an important support for airport transportation system,and the traffic demand forecast is the premise for airport transportation planning. Combined with the basic principle of the four-step method of traffic planning, this paper analyses the methodology, process and content in detail on how to forecast the ground traffic demand,and adjusts the trip-distribution and mode-split forecast model. Taking Nanjing Lukou international airport as an example, the transportation demand was forecasted. This rearch could be used for a reference to the similar airport and to the similar research.