CAJ | 학술논문

本文研究乘积季节模型在我国煤矿事故总数预测中的应用，通过对我国2006年1月到2010年12月煤矿事故总数数据来进行实证分析，采用差分方法对序列资料进行平稳化，然后进行模型定阶并估计其参数，建立了合适的乘积季节预测模型ARIMA（4，1，1）（1，1，1）12。对模型进行诊断检验，结果表明，用该乘积季节模型对我国煤矿事故总数拟合效果较好。最后，利用此模型对我国煤矿事故总数2010年1至12月进行了预测，与实际有较好的拟合。
본문연구승적계절모형재아국매광사고총수예측중적응용，통과대아국2006년1월도2010년12월매광사고총수수거래진행실증분석，채용차분방법대서렬자료진행평은화，연후진행모형정계병고계기삼수，건립료합괄적승적계절예측모형ARIMA（4，1，1）（1，1，1）12。대모형진행진단검험，결과표명，용해승적계절모형대아국매광사고총수의합효과교호。최후，이용차모형대아국매광사고총수2010년1지12월진행료예측，여실제유교호적의합。
This paper is to research an application of the multiplicative seasonal model to forecast the total number of China ’ s coal mine accidents.By the empirical analysis on the data of coal mine accidents from January 2006 to December 2010 , an accepted multiplicative seasonal forecasting model ARIMA (41, ,1)(1,1,1)12 is built up after differing the series to be stationary and esti-mating the order and parameters of the model.Furthermore, the test of this multiplicative seasonal model shows that it has a de-sirable fitting effect on the data of coal mine accidents.At last, this model is applied to forecast the number of national coal mine accidents from January 2010 to December 2010, and the forecasted values have a high accuracy when compared to the actual data.