CAJ | 학술논문

选取我国1979-2011年国民生产总值、能源生产总值、进出口贸易额、社会消费品零售总额和固定资产投资总额5项指标作为货运总量的主要影响因素，以货运总量为输出，建立了基于Morlet小波函数的小波神经网络预测模型。该模型能够揭示货运量与相关变量之间的非线性映射关系，经实例分析得到了较满意的结果，并通过与实际货运量和BP神经网络预测结果的对比，证明了小波神经网络在货运量预测方面应用的可行性。
선취아국1979-2011년국민생산총치、능원생산총치、진출구무역액、사회소비품령수총액화고정자산투자총액5항지표작위화운총량적주요영향인소，이화운총량위수출，건립료기우Morlet소파함수적소파신경망락예측모형。해모형능구게시화운량여상관변량지간적비선성영사관계，경실례분석득도료교만의적결과，병통과여실제화운량화BP신경망락예측결과적대비，증명료소파신경망락재화운량예측방면응용적가행성。
The main intention of this paper is to establish the freight volume forecast model based on Morlet wavelet function, which is used by wavelet neural network. The 5 main factors of the freight volume in the present study are GDP,total energy produc-tion,total value of imports and exports,total retail sales of consumer goods and total investment in fixed assets during 1979-2011 in China. The model can reveal the nonlinearity mapping relationship among the main factors related to the freight volume. The ex-ample analysis shows that the result is satisfactory,and the prediction method is effective and feasible.