CAJ | 학술논문

文章利用1986-2011年的统计数据，基于协整分析和状态空间模型，实证检验北京市城镇居民消费与可支配收入的数量关系以及城镇居民边际消费倾向的动态变化。实证结果表明：北京市城镇居民消费支出与可支配收入之间存在协整关系，消费支出对可支配收入的长期弹性为0.81，短期弹性为0.84。1986-2011年，北京市城镇居民边际消费倾向总体呈下降趋势，下降幅度为0.27。其中，1986-1991年，边际消费倾向呈现波动下降；1992-2003年，边际消费倾向缓慢下降；2004年后，边际消费倾向下降幅度加大。文章解释了边际消费下降的原因，并提出了相应对策建议。
문장이용1986-2011년적통계수거，기우협정분석화상태공간모형，실증검험북경시성진거민소비여가지배수입적수량관계이급성진거민변제소비경향적동태변화。실증결과표명：북경시성진거민소비지출여가지배수입지간존재협정관계，소비지출대가지배수입적장기탄성위0.81，단기탄성위0.84。1986-2011년，북경시성진거민변제소비경향총체정하강추세，하강폭도위0.27。기중，1986-1991년，변제소비경향정현파동하강；1992-2003년，변제소비경향완만하강；2004년후，변제소비경향하강폭도가대。문장해석료변제소비하강적원인，병제출료상응대책건의。
Based on co-integration analysis and state space model, this paper uses the statistical data from 1986 to 2011 year to make an empirical analysis on the quantitative relationship between urban resident consumption and income, and the dynamic changes of marginal propensity to consume (MPC) of urban residents in Beijing. The empirical results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between per capita consumption and per capita disposable income of urban resi-dent in Beijing. The long-term elasticity of per capita consumption expenditure over per capita disposable income was 0.81. The short-term elasticity was 0.84. The MPC of urban resident in Beijing showed a downward tendency from 1986 to 2011, falling by 0.27. The MPC showed fluctuating decrease from 1986 to 1991. The MPC declined slowly from 1992 to 2003. The MPC dropped greatly after 2004. On the basis of the results, this paper explains the cause of decrease of marginal consump-tion, and makes relevant countermeasures. <br> Based on co-integration analysis and state space model, this paper uses the statistical data from 1986 to 2011 year to make an empirical analysis on the quantitative relationship between urban resident consumption and income, and the dynamic changes of marginal propensity to consume (MPC) of urban residents in Beijing. The empirical results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between per capita consumption and per capita disposable income of urban resi-dent in Beijing. The long-term elasticity of per capita consumption expenditure over per capita disposable income was 0.81. The short-term elasticity was 0.84. The MPC of urban resident in Beijing showed a downward tendency from 1986 to 2011, falling by 0.27. The MPC showed fluctuating decrease from 1986 to 1991. The MPC declined slowly from 1992 to 2003. The MPC dropped greatly after 2004. On the basis of the results, this paper explains the cause of decrease of marginal consump-tion, and makes relevant countermeasures.