华东经济管理
華東經濟管理
화동경제관리
EAST CHINA ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT
2013年
12期
65-70
,共6页
刘俊华%李瑶琴%长青
劉俊華%李瑤琴%長青
류준화%리요금%장청
物流基础建设%物流投资%经济增长%系统动力学%误差修正模型
物流基礎建設%物流投資%經濟增長%繫統動力學%誤差脩正模型
물류기출건설%물류투자%경제증장%계통동역학%오차수정모형
logistics infrastructure%logistics investment%economic growth%System Dynamics%Error Correction Model
文章运用系统动力学模型对我国近年物流基础设施建设投资与经济增长之间的内在作用机制进行模型构建与拟合,得出增加物流基础设施投资可以促进经济增长,运用误差修正模型对物流建设投资与经济增长之间的内在关系进行定量分析,结果表明,物流基础建设与经济增长之间具有长期稳定的均衡关系,且目前我国物流基础设施存量已发挥作用,提出在继续增加物流基础设施投资的同时,要关注提高现有物流基础设施资源的使用效率。
文章運用繫統動力學模型對我國近年物流基礎設施建設投資與經濟增長之間的內在作用機製進行模型構建與擬閤,得齣增加物流基礎設施投資可以促進經濟增長,運用誤差脩正模型對物流建設投資與經濟增長之間的內在關繫進行定量分析,結果錶明,物流基礎建設與經濟增長之間具有長期穩定的均衡關繫,且目前我國物流基礎設施存量已髮揮作用,提齣在繼續增加物流基礎設施投資的同時,要關註提高現有物流基礎設施資源的使用效率。
문장운용계통동역학모형대아국근년물류기출설시건설투자여경제증장지간적내재작용궤제진행모형구건여의합,득출증가물류기출설시투자가이촉진경제증장,운용오차수정모형대물류건설투자여경제증장지간적내재관계진행정량분석,결과표명,물류기출건설여경제증장지간구유장기은정적균형관계,차목전아국물류기출설시존량이발휘작용,제출재계속증가물류기출설시투자적동시,요관주제고현유물류기출설시자원적사용효솔。
In the paper, a System Dynamics Model is used to build and simulate the internal mechanism between logistics in-frastructure investment and economic growth in recent years in China. The study shows that it can promote economic growth by increasing logistics construction investment. Then an Error Correction Model is applied to analysis their quantitative rela-tionship. The results indicate that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between China's logistics development and economic growth. And China's logistics infrastructure stocks have already been playing an important role at present. The paper suggests that the governments should continue to increase the logistics infrastructure investment and do their endeavor to improve the using efficiency of the existing logistics resources.