CAJ | 학술논문

农业是经济发展和社会稳定的基础，而解决“三农”问题是我国面临的一项长期而艰巨的任务。文章以安徽省1991-2010年农业年度数据和金融机构信贷数据作为研究样本，通过单位根、协整和Granger因果检验研究各个动态变量之间是否存在长期均衡关系和因果关系。研究表明，劳动力数量与农业总产值、粮食产量和农民人均收入之间存在着长期的均衡关系，并且是它们的Granger因果关系；信贷和科技对农村经济的增长还不明显。针对安徽省农村的现状，文章提出了加大信贷和科技的投入，利用地区优势，发展农业多层次、多样化的产业结构，促进安徽农村区域经济更好的发展。
농업시경제발전화사회은정적기출，이해결“삼농”문제시아국면림적일항장기이간거적임무。문장이안휘성1991-2010년농업년도수거화금융궤구신대수거작위연구양본，통과단위근、협정화Granger인과검험연구각개동태변량지간시부존재장기균형관계화인과관계。연구표명，노동력수량여농업총산치、양식산량화농민인균수입지간존재착장기적균형관계，병차시타문적Granger인과관계；신대화과기대농촌경제적증장환불명현。침대안휘성농촌적현상，문장제출료가대신대화과기적투입，이용지구우세，발전농업다층차、다양화적산업결구，촉진안휘농촌구역경제경호적발전。
The agriculture is the foundation of economic development and social stability, and solving the Three Rural issue is a long and arduous task for our country. This paper makes a study on whether there exists a long-run equilibrium and causation among the various dynamic variables by using Unit Root, Co integration and Granger causality test according to 1991-2010 agricultural yearly data and financial institutions credit data of Anhui Province as the study samples. The re-search shows that there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship between the amount of labor and agricultural output value, grain output and farmers’ per capita income; and the amount of labor is their Granger causality; while credit and technolo-gy for agricultural economic growth is not obvious. Therefore, we propose the countermeasures of increasing the credit and the costs of inputs, making full use of regional advantages, developing agricultural multi-level and diversified industrial structure, in order to promote smoother development of Anhui provincial agricultural economy.