CAJ | 학술논문

根据乌鲁木齐市2006～2010年的交通事故统计资料，分别以城市道路中9类不同的交通事故形态为因变量，从道路设施、道路环境等方面选取了9个因素作为自变量，通过二项logistic模型进行事故形态分析，建立事故形态与9个影响因素间的线性相关模型，对模型参数进行了估计，并对模型的拟合程度、可靠性进行了分析，研究了所有自变量单独/组合等不同情况下对因变量的影响。再通过多项Logistic模型对不同道路条件下，各种形态的事故发生几率进行了预测，并与实际情况进行对比，检验了模型拟合效果。
근거오로목제시2006～2010년적교통사고통계자료，분별이성시도로중9류불동적교통사고형태위인변량，종도로설시、도로배경등방면선취료9개인소작위자변량，통과이항logistic모형진행사고형태분석，건립사고형태여9개영향인소간적선성상관모형，대모형삼수진행료고계，병대모형적의합정도、가고성진행료분석，연구료소유자변량단독/조합등불동정황하대인변량적영향。재통과다항Logistic모형대불동도로조건하，각충형태적사고발생궤솔진행료예측，병여실제정황진행대비，검험료모형의합효과。
According to the statistical data of Urumqi City from 2006 to 2010 ,nine different crash types of traffic accidents on urban roadways were selected respectively as the dependent variables .Furthermore ,nine factors were select-ed as the independent variables ,in aspects of road facilities and road environment .Based on Binary Logistic Regression model ,this paper established linear correlative models between crash types and nine affecting factors ,evaluated the model parameters ,analyzed the reliability and fitting degree of the model ,and investigated the impact that different independent variables combination have on the dependent variables .The paper also predicted the risk of each crash types under various conditions by using a multi-Logistic model ,and compared the prediction with the actual cases ,and tested the fitting effi-ciency of the model used .