四川地震
四川地震
사천지진
EARTHQUAKE RESEARCH IN SICHUAN
2012年
4期
10-17
,共8页
苏琴%杨永林%王兰%向和平
囌琴%楊永林%王蘭%嚮和平
소금%양영림%왕란%향화평
跨断层形变%强震预测%中短期%鲜水河断裂带及附近区域
跨斷層形變%彊震預測%中短期%鮮水河斷裂帶及附近區域
과단층형변%강진예측%중단기%선수하단렬대급부근구역
deformation measurement of fault-crossing%strong earthquake prediction%intermediate - and short - term prediction%the Xianshuihe faults and vicinity areas
通过对鲜水河断裂带跨断层短水准、短基线资料的分析研究，系统地提取测区内外5．5级以上地震前跨断层形变前兆异常特征，并作详细的整理、分析，综合得出监测区及附近中短期强震预测指标及预报方法。其结果显示：跨断层形变观测资料大多在震前1—3年出现异常，其异常表现形式以断层活动停滞、反向、突跳为主，震前半年左右异常发育至最高，临震前有明显回落，其前兆意义较为明确；水平形变测量的预测成功率高于垂直形变测量。
通過對鮮水河斷裂帶跨斷層短水準、短基線資料的分析研究，繫統地提取測區內外5．5級以上地震前跨斷層形變前兆異常特徵，併作詳細的整理、分析，綜閤得齣鑑測區及附近中短期彊震預測指標及預報方法。其結果顯示：跨斷層形變觀測資料大多在震前1—3年齣現異常，其異常錶現形式以斷層活動停滯、反嚮、突跳為主，震前半年左右異常髮育至最高，臨震前有明顯迴落，其前兆意義較為明確；水平形變測量的預測成功率高于垂直形變測量。
통과대선수하단렬대과단층단수준、단기선자료적분석연구，계통지제취측구내외5．5급이상지진전과단층형변전조이상특정，병작상세적정리、분석，종합득출감측구급부근중단기강진예측지표급예보방법。기결과현시：과단층형변관측자료대다재진전1—3년출현이상，기이상표현형식이단층활동정체、반향、돌도위주，진전반년좌우이상발육지최고，림진전유명현회락，기전조의의교위명학；수평형변측량적예측성공솔고우수직형변측량。
The observation data of the short baseline and leveling at the fault - crossing deformation measurement sites along the Xianshuihe faults are analyzed. The precursory abnormal characteristics are summarized from the fault-crossing deformation observation data. The earthquakes of magnitude over 5.5 ( medium to strong earth- quakes) occurred within the Xianshuihe seismic areas are used for our study. The predictive indexes of strong earthquakes and the predictive methods for the monitoring areas are put forward. Our study shows that the abnormal indexes derived from deformation observation data along the Xianshuihe faults may indicate an earthquake before 1 to 3 years. The abnormal index shows a change state from locking to inversing and then moving again. Most of cases the abnormal index reach the highest value a half year before an earthquake. And then the index falls a little bit near an earthquake. In our study cases the success rate of the horizontal deformation observation data is higher than that of vertical data.
