CAJ | 학술논문

使用中尺度数值天气预报业务模式9km和3km分辨率的模式输出产品，分别应用小尺度模式CALMET模式和双线性插值（BLI）方法将预报风速进行降尺度处理，并对比预报风速和风塔观测资料。结果表明：WRF模式9km分辨率的模式输出经过CALMET模式降尺度以后得到的风速预报效果比3kin分辨率的模式输出略好。同时，由于中尺度数值预报模式分辨率本身较高，使用BLI也可以得到较好的风速预报。将风速分为0m·s^-1≤风速〈5m·s^-1，5m·s^-1≤风速〈10m·s^-1和风速≥10m·s^-1共3个等级，检验3个风速等级的预报偏差百分比得出，CALMET模式和BLI方法对10m·s^-1以上的风速预报效果相对较差；如何对大风预报进行订正对风速预报准确率的提高具有重要意义。
사용중척도수치천기예보업무모식9km화3km분변솔적모식수출산품，분별응용소척도모식CALMET모식화쌍선성삽치（BLI）방법장예보풍속진행강척도처리，병대비예보풍속화풍탑관측자료。결과표명：WRF모식9km분변솔적모식수출경과CALMET모식강척도이후득도적풍속예보효과비3kin분변솔적모식수출략호。동시，유우중척도수치예보모식분변솔본신교고，사용BLI야가이득도교호적풍속예보。장풍속분위0m·s^-1≤풍속〈5m·s^-1，5m·s^-1≤풍속〈10m·s^-1화풍속≥10m·s^-1공3개등급，검험3개풍속등급적예보편차백분비득출，CALMET모식화BLI방법대10m·s^-1이상적풍속예보효과상대교차；여하대대풍예보진행정정대풍속예보준학솔적제고구유중요의의。
The small-scale CALMET model and bilinear interpolation(BLI) method were used to downscale the output of mesoscale numerical weather prediction from the WRF model using both 9 km and 3 km resolutions. The simulated and observed wind speeds were compared. The results show that forecast accuracy of wind speed after downscaling with the CALMET model is higher with 9 km resolution than that with 3 krn resolution. At the same time, the forecast effect of wind speed is also good using the BLI method because of the spatial resolution of me- soscale numerical weather prediction model is high. Wind speed is divided into three levels, namely, 0 m·s^-1≤ wind speed 〈5 m·s^-1,5 m·s^-1≤wind speed 〈 10 m·s^-1and wind speed≥ 10 m·s^-1,and the percentages of pre- diction errors of three levels are tested. It shows that forecast results for wind speed ≥ 10 m·s^-1 are poor no matter whether the CALMET model or the BLI method. It is therefore important to correct strong wind forecast for im- provement of wind speed forecast accuracy.