CAJ | 학술논문

应用复杂网络理论与风险理论，综合考虑了电网的运行状态和拓扑结构，提出了一种基于贝叶斯网络的条件概率风险指标对电力系统灾难性事故的评估方法。该方法引入了电气介数指标，克服了传统风险评估中事故严重度只考虑电网运行状态而没有考虑电网结构的不足。应用条件概率，弥补了传统风险评估中元件故障概率之间相互独立的缺陷。构建了灾难性事故风险指标体系，表征了系统当前状态的运行风险，刻画了系统由于连锁故障向灾难性演变的趋势。仿真结果证明该方法能够有效地辨识系统存在的风险，为电网安全性评估提供了有效的参考信息。
응용복잡망락이론여풍험이론，종합고필료전망적운행상태화탁복결구，제출료일충기우패협사망락적조건개솔풍험지표대전력계통재난성사고적평고방법。해방법인입료전기개수지표，극복료전통풍험평고중사고엄중도지고필전망운행상태이몰유고필전망결구적불족。응용조건개솔，미보료전통풍험평고중원건고장개솔지간상호독립적결함。구건료재난성사고풍험지표체계，표정료계통당전상태적운행풍험，각화료계통유우련쇄고장향재난성연변적추세。방진결과증명해방법능구유효지변식계통존재적풍험，위전망안전성평고제공료유효적삼고신식。
Applying complex network theory and risk theory and synthetically considering operation conditions of power grid and its topological structure, a method based on conditional probability risk indicators of Bayesian network to assess disastrous accident occurred in power grid is proposed. The concept of electrical betweenness is led in the proposed method to resolve the deficiency in traditional risk assessment that in the severity of fault only operational conditions of power grid are considered and topological structure of power grid is not considered. Applying conditional probability the defect in traditional risk assessment that the fault probabilities of elements are independent one another can be remedied. A risk index system of disastrous accidents is established to characterize operational risk under current status of power grid and depict the developing trend from cascading failure to disastrous accident. Simulation results show that the proposed method can effectively identify the risks existing in power grid, thus reference information that is available for power grid security assessment can be offered.