CAJ | 학술논문

研究基于统计数据,根据IPCC碳排放计算指南,分析了昆明市1993年-2010年能源消费特征以及引起的碳排放变化趋势,为昆明市的碳减排及应对气候变化战略的制定提供参考依据。结果表明：随着社会经济的快速发展,1993年-2010年昆明市能源消费和碳排放量的变化特征基本相似,总体呈现不断增长的变化趋势;尤其最近十年能源消费和碳排放量的年均增长率分别达10.6%和10.3%;人均能源消费量和人均碳排放量均高于同期全国人均水平;以煤炭为主的化石燃料的能源利用比例一直居高不下是碳排放的主要来源;2005年以来昆明市碳排放强度低于全国平均水平,而且碳排放强度总体呈下降趋势,年均下降率为4.10%,大于全国碳排放强度的下降水平,通过提高能源利用效率,降低能耗强度,能够有效降低碳排放强度。
연구기우통계수거,근거IPCC탄배방계산지남,분석료곤명시1993년-2010년능원소비특정이급인기적탄배방변화추세,위곤명시적탄감배급응대기후변화전략적제정제공삼고의거。결과표명：수착사회경제적쾌속발전,1993년-2010년곤명시능원소비화탄배방량적변화특정기본상사,총체정현불단증장적변화추세;우기최근십년능원소비화탄배방량적년균증장솔분별체10.6%화10.3%;인균능원소비량화인균탄배방량균고우동기전국인균수평;이매탄위주적화석연료적능원이용비례일직거고불하시탄배방적주요래원;2005년이래곤명시탄배방강도저우전국평균수평,이차탄배방강도총체정하강추세,년균하강솔위4.10%,대우전국탄배방강도적하강수평,통과제고능원이용효솔,강저능모강도,능구유효강저탄배방강도。
The energy consumption characteristics and carbon emissions tendencies in Kunming City from1993 to 2010 were analyzed based on statistical data, calculation methodology and carbon emission coefficients adopted by the IPCC in a bid to pro- vide reference for the formulation of reasonable strategies and policies for carbon emissions reduction and energy development. The results showed that the energy consumption and carbon emissions increased continuously with the fast social and economic develop- ment in Kunming City. The average annual growth rate is 10. 6% and 10. 3% respectively during the recent 10 years. The energy consumption and carbon emission per capita is higher than that of the national average. The consumption of fossil fuels is the major contributor to energy consumption and carbon emission. Coal carbon emissions is the largest among all kinds of energy consump- tions, accounting for more than 90% of total emission. The carbon emission intensity reduced consecutively from2005 with an an- nual rate of 4. 10%. The carbon emission intensity was lower than that nationwide, but higher than the reading for the world and America.