CAJ | 학술논문

利用平均相对湿度（x1）、平均风速（x2）、平均温度（x3）、蒸发量（Y）数据建立蒸发量预测的多元线性回归模型。分析模型表明主要蒸发量的影响因子依次为x3〉x2〉x1；利用该模型预测蒸发量，并结合气象站的预报结果计算降雨量和蒸发量之间的差值即有效保水量：参照国家森林火险等级预报方法，结合森林资源和生态系统指标．使用权值打分法计算云南各地州火险等级评分，云南省森林火险划分为5个等级，指出森林防火工作的重点地区和针对不同火险级别提出相应的防范措施。用易于获取的气象因子来预测蒸发量，实时完成数据测量，火险等级划分和预测的结果具有良好的时效性．可以实时分析中期火险趋势．有效地提出森林防火工作的重点地区和不同火险级别的相应措施．更好地遏制森林火灾的发生。
이용평균상대습도（x1）、평균풍속（x2）、평균온도（x3）、증발량（Y）수거건립증발량예측적다원선성회귀모형。분석모형표명주요증발량적영향인자의차위x3〉x2〉x1；이용해모형예측증발량，병결합기상참적예보결과계산강우량화증발량지간적차치즉유효보수량：삼조국가삼림화험등급예보방법，결합삼림자원화생태계통지표．사용권치타분법계산운남각지주화험등급평분，운남성삼림화험화분위5개등급，지출삼림방화공작적중점지구화침대불동화험급별제출상응적방범조시。용역우획취적기상인자래예측증발량，실시완성수거측량，화험등급화분화예측적결과구유량호적시효성．가이실시분석중기화험추세．유효지제출삼림방화공작적중점지구화불동화험급별적상응조시．경호지알제삼림화재적발생。
Used average relative humidity, average wind speed, average temperature and evaporation es- tablished the multivariate linear model on evaporation predicting. The results showed that the main factors influencing the evaporation were arranged in order of x3〉x2〉x1. The model could be predicted evapora- tion, and combined with meteorological station forecast results to calculated effective moisture content by the difference between rainfall and evaporation. Reference to national forest fire rating prediction methods, and forest resources and ecosystem indicators, fire rank mark of various states in Yunnan province were calculated with weighting scoring method. Forest fire in Yunnan province was divided into five levels. The key area of forest fire prevention was proposed, and some corresponding measures were put forward to dif- ferent fire grade. The model selected factors of meteorological could be acquired easily to predict evapora- tion, and real timely accomplish to measure data, the result of forest fire grade dividing and predicting is good time-sensitive, and analyze of medium fire trend in real-time, and effectively propose the key area of forest fire prevention and different fire grade corresponding measures, so as to contain forest fire.