CAJ | 학술논문

利用ECWMF数值预报产品资料、逐日客观分析资料、常规观测资料以及高密度区域气象自动站降水资料和物理量资料,对2011年6月中、下旬发生在贵州西部地区的两场暴雨天气过程进行对比分析。结果表明：①两场暴雨的发生,中低层均有西南低涡沿切变线东南移和强盛的西南暖湿气流,第1场有高原槽,第2场既有高原槽又有南支槽等天气条件的有效合理配置,以及较强的垂直上升运动和充足的水汽、能量条件,为暴雨产生提供充分的条件。②区域气象自动站降水资料显示,中小尺度天气系统演变对强降水落区有很好的指示意义。③WRF模式较准确地模拟出降水落区、强度以及700 hPa上西南涡沿切变线移动趋势,对类似暴雨短时临近预报具有重要的指示意义。
이용ECWMF수치예보산품자료、축일객관분석자료、상규관측자료이급고밀도구역기상자동참강수자료화물리량자료,대2011년6월중、하순발생재귀주서부지구적량장폭우천기과정진행대비분석。결과표명：①량장폭우적발생,중저층균유서남저와연절변선동남이화강성적서남난습기류,제1장유고원조,제2장기유고원조우유남지조등천기조건적유효합리배치,이급교강적수직상승운동화충족적수기、능량조건,위폭우산생제공충분적조건。②구역기상자동참강수자료현시,중소척도천기계통연변대강강수락구유흔호적지시의의。③WRF모식교준학지모의출강수락구、강도이급700 hPa상서남와연절변선이동추세,대유사폭우단시림근예보구유중요적지시의의。
By using of objective analysis ECWMF data, conventional observation, the automatic weather station data and physical quantity, the rainstorm at night o,1 mid to late June 2011 in Western Guizhou~Province is analyzed. The results clearly show:(1)The two rainstorms had trough (or southern trough ), southwest vortex, shear line, jet and deep water vapor and other weather conditions is effective and rational allocation of weather conditions. The two rainstorm of occurred, there is strong vertical motion, the abundant energy and water vapor over conditions on Western Guizhou, these conditions for the rainstorm provides a sufficient condition. (2)The regional data shows, au- tomatic stood on the small and medium - scale weather system of precipitation rain formation and strengthen played an important role, and for the short- term forecast has instructions near. (3)WRF model simulate precipitation rain formation, intensity -time forecast has and 700 hPa southwest vortex moving along the shear line trend, similar to the rainstorm short important significance