CAJ | 학술논문

全国农运会是综合性运动会,存在东道主效应。在农运会东道主效应研究的基础上,运用文献研究法、数理统计法等,以农运会东道主比赛成绩为研究对象,对东道主效应进行量化分析和预测。结果表明：新世纪以来的近三届全国农运会东道主效应系数为9.64%;河南省在第七届全国农运会上预计获得金牌35枚;比较其他诸强的预测成绩后得出结论东道主河南省取得金牌第一极有可能。
전국농운회시종합성운동회,존재동도주효응。재농운회동도주효응연구적기출상,운용문헌연구법、수리통계법등,이농운회동도주비새성적위연구대상,대동도주효응진행양화분석화예측。결과표명：신세기이래적근삼계전국농운회동도주효응계수위9.64%;하남성재제칠계전국농운회상예계획득금패35매;비교기타제강적예측성적후득출결론동도주하남성취득금패제일겁유가능。
The National Peasants' Games is a comprehensive sports meeting with host effect.Based on previous research on this topic and by using the methods of literature review and mathematical statistics,this article makes the quantum analysis and prediction of the host effect with the final performance as its research object.The results show that host effect quotient of the recent three National Peasants' Games is 9.64%;Henan province is likely to gain 35 gold medals in the seventh games;Henan stands great chances to win the most gold medals comparing with other powerful teams.