CAJ | 학술논문

本文总结了害虫预测预报四个不同时期（经验预测、实验预测、统计预测及信息预测）常用的预测预报方法;概述了惯性原则下的害虫可预测预报科学依据,借助Logistic方程分析了害虫种群系统发生发展最终呈现混沌性的规律;根据害虫种群混沌系统中非线性及线性共存的特点,提出了害虫预测预报方法中运用复合模型理论的改进设想。
본문총결료해충예측예보사개불동시기（경험예측、실험예측、통계예측급신식예측）상용적예측예보방법;개술료관성원칙하적해충가예측예보과학의거,차조Logistic방정분석료해충충군계통발생발전최종정현혼돈성적규률;근거해충충군혼돈계통중비선성급선성공존적특점,제출료해충예측예보방법중운용복합모형이론적개진설상。
This article summarizes the four different periods of the pest forecasting(empirical prediction,experimental forecast,statistics,forecasts and information to predict) commonly used forecasting methods It gives an overview of the inertia principle of pest forecasting scientific basis,and with the logistic equation analysis pest populations of the occurrence and development of the final presentation of the chaotic nature of the law.According to the characteristics of nonlinear and linear co-exist in the chaotic system of the pest populations,it suggests that pest forecasting methods use a composite model theory for improvement.