CAJ | 학술논문

利用四维变分多普勒雷达资料分析系统对2008年7月30日北京一次强降水过程反演得到的风场和微物理场进行分析，针对本过程中东段回波减弱消散、强降水区的确定、降水回波的转向几个短时临近预报关键点进行讨论，得出如下初步结论：1）在东段降水回波减弱消散前的12～24min，其对应的4．7km高度扰动温度场正值区出现“u”形中空结构，甚至在中空结构中有负值区出现，同时1．7km高度垂直速度场有上升气流与下沉气流分离的现象；2）如果4．7km高度扰动温度场的相对大值区在某地区持续时间较长（2h左右）或者某区域扰动温度迅速增加且出现大值中心（大于2oC）并维持，那么该区域未来1～2h内出现较强降水的可能性较大；3）降水回波的转向是受到1．7km高度在密云、平谷境内出现的反气旋型环流西部气流的引导，而该环流的出现则是北京西部持续强降水区的辐合上升气流在中高层水平输送到北京东部的密云、平谷境内并在该处形成下沉辐散的反气旋型环流反作用于降水回波所致，环流的形成早于回波转向约1h。
이용사유변분다보륵뢰체자료분석계통대2008년7월30일북경일차강강수과정반연득도적풍장화미물리장진행분석，침대본과정중동단회파감약소산、강강수구적학정、강수회파적전향궤개단시림근예보관건점진행토론，득출여하초보결론：1）재동단강수회파감약소산전적12～24min，기대응적4．7km고도우동온도장정치구출현“u”형중공결구，심지재중공결구중유부치구출현，동시1．7km고도수직속도장유상승기류여하침기류분리적현상；2）여과4．7km고도우동온도장적상대대치구재모지구지속시간교장（2h좌우）혹자모구역우동온도신속증가차출현대치중심（대우2oC）병유지，나요해구역미래1～2h내출현교강강수적가능성교대；3）강수회파적전향시수도1．7km고도재밀운、평곡경내출현적반기선형배류서부기류적인도，이해배류적출현칙시북경서부지속강강수구적복합상승기류재중고층수평수송도북경동부적밀운、평곡경내병재해처형성하침복산적반기선형배류반작용우강수회파소치，배류적형성조우회파전향약1h。
A fourdimensional variational Doppler radar analysis system (VDRAS) is used to analyze the three dimensional wind fields and microphysical fields of a rainstorm case in Beijing on July 30, 2008. After discussing some key points in shortterm and nowcasting forecast such as the weakening and dissipation of the eastern echo as well as heavy rain area and the turning of echo, some preliminary con clusions were obtained: 1 ) 1224 minutes before the weakening and dissipation of the eastern echo, a hollow structure (even negative point) appeared in corresponding analyzed perturbation temperature positive region at the height of 4. 7 km, and at the same time ascending and descending flow separated in the same region at the height of 1.7 km. 2) If the duration of the analyzed perturbation temperature in some regions was higher than that in other regions for 2 hours or longer, or the perturbation tempera ture increased rapidly in few minutes and reached the extreme value (above 2 ℃ ), there was a good chance that heavy rain would occur in 12 hours in this region. 3 ) The turning of the echo was con ducted by the western air flow of anticyclone style circulation flow at the height of 1.7 km. A conver gence ascending flow was horizontally transported from western region to Miyun and Pinggu in the eastem region, and then a divergence descending flow of anticyclone type came into being. The moving of radar echo was affected by the air flow and this flow occurred about 1 hour before the echo turning.