CAJ | 학술논문

利用自主构建的基于风暴尺度的WRF—EnSRF（weather research and forecasting ensemble square root filter）系统同化实际多普勒雷达资料，检验该同化系统在包括飑线、超级单体风暴和多单体风暴3个不同结构类型的强对流天气过程的同化效果，并考察了初始场扰动时不同强度的位温和水汽扰动对集合离散度以及同化效果的影响。结果表明，在3个个例中该同化系统均表现出有效的同化能力，各分析结果均比较合理，径向速度和反射率因子分析的增量均方差在经过24min同化后分别下降到3～5m／s和10dBz，并维持至60min同化结束。预报场集合离散度和同化效果对热力场的扰动强度比较敏感，适当增加初始扰动时位温和水汽的扰动强度有利于提高集合离散度和改善径向速度的分析效果。
이용자주구건적기우풍폭척도적WRF—EnSRF（weather research and forecasting ensemble square root filter）계통동화실제다보륵뢰체자료，검험해동화계통재포괄박선、초급단체풍폭화다단체풍폭3개불동결구류형적강대류천기과정적동화효과，병고찰료초시장우동시불동강도적위온화수기우동대집합리산도이급동화효과적영향。결과표명，재3개개례중해동화계통균표현출유효적동화능력，각분석결과균비교합리，경향속도화반사솔인자분석적증량균방차재경과24min동화후분별하강도3～5m／s화10dBz，병유지지60min동화결속。예보장집합리산도화동화효과대열력장적우동강도비교민감，괄당증가초시우동시위온화수기적우동강도유리우제고집합리산도화개선경향속도적분석효과。
The effectiveness of the EnSRF(ensemble square root filter) data assimilation system in as similating Doppler radar data on convective scales is investigated for cases whose behaviors span super cellular,linear, and multicellular organizations. The impacts of potential temperature and water vapor at different levels on ensemble spread and assimilation effect during initial perturbations are also investiga ted. The EnSRF performs effectively and produces results of comparable quality for each of the cases. The root mean square innovations of radial velocity and reflectivity decrease to 35 m/s and about 10 dBz respectively after roughly 24 rain of assimilation and maintain the values throughout to the end of the 60 min period of assimilation. The ensemble spread and assimilation effect are sensitive to the mag nitude of perturbation in thermal field, which implies that larger ensemble spread and better radial veloc ity analysis can be obtained by increasing the standard deviation of potential temperature and water va por mix ratio aooroofiatelv durin initial terturbation