CAJ | 학술논문

基于中国6个代表站5-9月的逐日降水资料，利用二维Gumbel-Logistic分布，研究了中国不同区域的过程降水量和日最大强降水雨量的联合概率特征。结果表明，各代表性台站的过程雨量和强降水雨量的联合分布均符合二维Gumbel分布。强降水雨量与过程降雨量联合分布所描述的极端事件是更小的小概率事件。相同强降水雨量条件下，过程雨量越大，重现期越长当强降水雨量增大时，同一过程雨量的重现期也延长。在同级强降水雨量出现的条件下，各地过程降雨量往往是愈往南方其条件概率愈大，而其出现的过程雨量也随之增大。这为研究强降水极端状况的全方位特征做出了新的试验．也曼加客观地揭示了极端气候事件的多方面概率特征．
기우중국6개대표참5-9월적축일강수자료，이용이유Gumbel-Logistic분포，연구료중국불동구역적과정강수량화일최대강강수우량적연합개솔특정。결과표명，각대표성태참적과정우량화강강수우량적연합분포균부합이유Gumbel분포。강강수우량여과정강우량연합분포소묘술적겁단사건시경소적소개솔사건。상동강강수우량조건하，과정우량월대，중현기월장당강강수우량증대시，동일과정우량적중현기야연장。재동급강강수우량출현적조건하，각지과정강우량왕왕시유왕남방기조건개솔유대，이기출현적과정우량야수지증대。저위연구강강수겁단상황적전방위특정주출료신적시험．야만가객관지게시료겁단기후사건적다방면개솔특정．
Based on the daily precipitation data of six representative stations in China from May to Sep tember, the joint probability characteristics of the heavy precipitation and the corresponding course pre cipitation are investigated by the bivariate GumbelLogistic model. Results show that the bivariate Gum belLogistic model is suitable for the joint distribution of the heavy precipitation and the corresponding course precipitation at the selected stations. The probability of the joint distribution is smaller than the probability of either. On the certain heavy precipitation condition, the more the course precipitation is, the longer the return period is. The return period of the corresponding course precipitation can be pro longed by the increased amount of heavy precipitation. The probability of course precipitation in south is larger than that in north and the same as the amount of course precipitation under the same heavy pre cipitation conditioan. The study is a new attempt of research on extreme precipitation in all domains and reveals the multisided probability characteristics of extreme climate events.