大连民族学院学报
大連民族學院學報
대련민족학원학보
JOURNAL OF DALIAN UNIVERSITY FOR NATIONAL MINORITIES
2012年
6期
615-617,663
,共4页
房地产%Johansen协整检验%误差修正模型%Granger因果关系检验
房地產%Johansen協整檢驗%誤差脩正模型%Granger因果關繫檢驗
방지산%Johansen협정검험%오차수정모형%Granger인과관계검험
real estate%Johansen co-integration test%error correction model%Granger causality test
以中国房地产市场发展现状分析为前提,以辽宁省为例,运用Johansen协整关系检验、误差修正模型和Granger因果关系检验的方法,对房地产投资与经济增长之间的关系进行实证分析。结果表明房地产投资与经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系。短期看房地产投资与经济增长具有相互促进作用,但房地产投资的不断增长并不能长期促进经济的持续发展。基于此,政府部门在进行房地产行业宏观调控时应持慎重的态度。
以中國房地產市場髮展現狀分析為前提,以遼寧省為例,運用Johansen協整關繫檢驗、誤差脩正模型和Granger因果關繫檢驗的方法,對房地產投資與經濟增長之間的關繫進行實證分析。結果錶明房地產投資與經濟增長之間存在長期均衡關繫。短期看房地產投資與經濟增長具有相互促進作用,但房地產投資的不斷增長併不能長期促進經濟的持續髮展。基于此,政府部門在進行房地產行業宏觀調控時應持慎重的態度。
이중국방지산시장발전현상분석위전제,이요녕성위례,운용Johansen협정관계검험、오차수정모형화Granger인과관계검험적방법,대방지산투자여경제증장지간적관계진행실증분석。결과표명방지산투자여경제증장지간존재장기균형관계。단기간방지산투자여경제증장구유상호촉진작용,단방지산투자적불단증장병불능장기촉진경제적지속발전。기우차,정부부문재진행방지산행업굉관조공시응지신중적태도。
Based on the analysis of the present development of China′s real estate market,taking Liaoning Province for instance,this paper uses an empirical test to study the relationship between real estate investment and economic growth in Liaoning province by means of Johansen co-integration test,error correction model and Granger causality test.The empirical results suggest that there exists a long-term equilibrium relationship between real estate investment and economic growth.On short terms,real estate investment and economic growth are mutually promotive.However,the ever-increasing investment in real estate hasn't a long marked stimulative effect on economic growth,so the government should be cautious in implementing macro-modulation policies for real estate industry.
