CAJ | 학술논문

改革开放以来,我国对外贸易和入境旅游获得了快速的发展,统计资料显示两者具有较强的相关性。选取中国与美国、日本、德国、澳大利亚四个旅游和贸易伙伴国,依据1985～2010年的相关统计数据,运用协整分析和格兰杰因果关系检验,对入境旅游与进出口贸易之间的关系进行了分析,结果发现：（1）美国、日本、德国和澳大利亚入境中国客流量,与中国和四国的进口贸易、出口贸易及进出口贸易存在着长期的稳定关系,说明贸易与旅游之间的确存在着协整关系;（2）格兰杰因果关系检验的结果表明,美国和德国的出口贸易、进出口贸易均促进入境中国旅游的发展,而日本和澳大利亚却是入境旅游推动进口、出口和进出口贸易,这说明了国际旅游与国际贸易之间的关系因国家及发展阶段不同而呈现出复杂性多样的情况;（3）从检验结果可知,我们应更加关注亚洲和澳洲市场,特别是应将中国周边国家作为入境旅游的核心市场进行营销,因为这不仅能促进入境旅游的发展,也能通过旅游的带动作用加快双边贸易额的增长,同时促进我国传统的对外贸易体系和结构向更合理、更稳定的方向迈进。
개혁개방이래,아국대외무역화입경여유획득료쾌속적발전,통계자료현시량자구유교강적상관성。선취중국여미국、일본、덕국、오대리아사개여유화무역화반국,의거1985～2010년적상관통계수거,운용협정분석화격란걸인과관계검험,대입경여유여진출구무역지간적관계진행료분석,결과발현：（1）미국、일본、덕국화오대리아입경중국객류량,여중국화사국적진구무역、출구무역급진출구무역존재착장기적은정관계,설명무역여여유지간적학존재착협정관계;（2）격란걸인과관계검험적결과표명,미국화덕국적출구무역、진출구무역균촉진입경중국여유적발전,이일본화오대리아각시입경여유추동진구、출구화진출구무역,저설명료국제여유여국제무역지간적관계인국가급발전계단불동이정현출복잡성다양적정황;（3）종검험결과가지,아문응경가관주아주화오주시장,특별시응장중국주변국가작위입경여유적핵심시장진행영소,인위저불부능촉진입경여유적발전,야능통과여유적대동작용가쾌쌍변무역액적증장,동시촉진아국전통적대외무역체계화결구향경합리、경은정적방향매진。
After China' s Open Policy Reform, international tourism and international trade of China all increase rapidly, and the strong relativity between this two are showed by statistic materials. Taking China' s four major tourist source countries and trade partners, U. S, Japan, Germany and Australia, as research objects, according to the relative data from 1985 to 2008, this paper analyzes the relationship between inbound tourism and import & export trade using the co - integration test and Granger causality test, the results are as follows : ( 1 ) Chinese inbound tourism from U. S, Japan, Germany and Australia and import & export trade between China and these four countries exist the long term stable relation, which demonstrates the co -integration between tourism and trade. (2)The results of Granger causality test indicate U. S and Germanys' exports and import & export trade promote the Chinese inbound tourism development, but for Japan and Australia, inbound tourism push import, export and import & export trade, which also show the relationship between international tourism and international trade is complexity owing to the difference of state and develop stage. (3) According to the results of the test, we should take more attention on Asia and Australia market, especially take the surrounding countries as the core market to promote. That not only can boost the inbound tourism, but also improve the volume of bilateral trade, and push our traditional trade system and structure to be more reasonable and stable.