CAJ | 학술논문

针对转型期发电市场中相关管制政策实施后出现的问题，通过建立评价指标体系，将抽象的改革要求及政策管制目标，系统转化为可计量的考核指标，并运用系统动力学流率基本入树的建模和分析方法，量化分析相关管制政策实施效果。分析结果表明：①联动涨幅最低标准、联动比例、煤价涨幅及政策实施的及时性，是影响煤电价格联动政策实施效果的关键因素；②盈利能力分化程度、能耗高小机组生存能力和需求预测准确性，是影响标杆电价、上大压小和投资项目核准政策实施效果的重要原因；③如采用适当控制煤价及需求增长幅度、调整联动涨幅最低标准及联动比例等改进措施，可起到缓解煤电价格矛盾、改善机组盈利能力、提振投资信心和促进供求平衡的作用。
침대전형기발전시장중상관관제정책실시후출현적문제，통과건립평개지표체계，장추상적개혁요구급정책관제목표，계통전화위가계량적고핵지표，병운용계통동역학류솔기본입수적건모화분석방법，양화분석상관관제정책실시효과。분석결과표명：①련동창폭최저표준、련동비례、매개창폭급정책실시적급시성，시영향매전개격련동정책실시효과적관건인소；②영리능력분화정도、능모고소궤조생존능력화수구예측준학성，시영향표간전개、상대압소화투자항목핵준정책실시효과적중요원인；③여채용괄당공제매개급수구증장폭도、조정련동창폭최저표준급련동비례등개진조시，가기도완해매전개격모순、개선궤조영리능력、제진투자신심화촉진공구평형적작용。
In view of the existing problem arising in the power generation market after implementing the correlated regulatory policy, a countable evaluation index system is built to systematically transfer the abstract reform request and the regulatory goals into quantifiable examination index. Then a modeling and analyzing method of rate variable based in-tree in system dynamics is used to quantitatively study the effect of correlated regulatory policy implementation. The results show that: ①the key factors influencing the implementing effect of the coupled coal-electricity policy include the lowest linkage coal price rises, the linkage ratio, the coal price increase, and the timeliness of the policy implementation; ②the main factors influencing the implementing effect of other regulatory policies, such as benchmark price, approval system of enterprise investment project, and replacing small units with large ones, include the different profitability, the loss of survival ability of the old unit, and the reliability of the power demand forecast;③if such improved measures as controlling the coal price rises and power demand, and adjusting the lowest coal price rises and the linkage ratio are taken, it may take effect in relieving the coal and power price contradiction, improving the unit profitability, inspiring the investment, and promoting the balance between power supply and demand.