CAJ | 학술논문

以辽宁省彰武县2006～2012年林业产值统计数据来分析林业产业结构的变动情况。运用灰色关联度分析方法计算出彰武县5个不同时间段林业产业结构的灰色关联度，分析彰武县林业产业结构现状和动态变化，找出三次产业及其产业内部的优势、劣势因素，并应用灰色预测模型GM （1，1）对彰武县2013～2017年林业产值进行发展趋势预测。研究结果表明：彰武县林业总产值与第二产业的关联度最大，与第三产业关联度最弱；在各产业内部，第一产业与花卉的关联度最大，第二产业与人造板制造关联度最大，第三产业与林业公共管理及其他组织服务的关联度最大；未来五年，彰武县林业第二产业将快速发展，第一产业发展缓慢，第三产业发展滞后。
이요녕성창무현2006～2012년임업산치통계수거래분석임업산업결구적변동정황。운용회색관련도분석방법계산출창무현5개불동시간단임업산업결구적회색관련도，분석창무현임업산업결구현상화동태변화，조출삼차산업급기산업내부적우세、열세인소，병응용회색예측모형GM （1，1）대창무현2013～2017년임업산치진행발전추세예측。연구결과표명：창무현임업총산치여제이산업적관련도최대，여제삼산업관련도최약；재각산업내부，제일산업여화훼적관련도최대，제이산업여인조판제조관련도최대，제삼산업여임업공공관리급기타조직복무적관련도최대；미래오년，창무현임업제이산업장쾌속발전，제일산업발전완만，제삼산업발전체후。
Using the data from 2006 to 2012 Zhangwu County forestry output value as statistics , Anal-ysis of changes in the structure of the forestry industry .Using of grey correlation analysis method to calculate the forestry industry structure gray correlation , Analysis Zhangwu County forestry industrial structure status and dynamic change , identifying three industries and industry internal strengths and weaknesses factors , application of gray prediction model GM (1, 1) to predict 2013 to 2017 Zhang-wu County forestry output value .Studies have shown that: Zhangwu County forestry output value of the maximum of correlation is the second industry , and the third industry correlation is the weakest . Within various industries , the first industry correlation maximum is flower industry , the second indus-try is man-made board manufacturing industry , the third industry is forestry management and other public service organizations .In the next five years , the second forestry industry will be rapid develop-ment, the first industry develops slowly , the third industry develops lag .