CAJ | 학술논문

美国金融危机以来，我国出口额与FDI （外商直接投资）的月度同比增长率均出现不同程度的连续负增长，经济增速也呈现明显放缓趋势。基于2008年1月至2013年6月的月度数据，通过构建SVAR（结构向量自回归）模型，对我国出口、FDI和经济增长之间的动态影响关系进行研究。结果显示，FDI对我国经济增长的推动作用显著，出口对经济增长的贡献则十分有限，但中国经济保持稳定增长会对出口和FDI产生积极影响，且出口和FDI之间存在明显相互促进作用。
미국금융위궤이래，아국출구액여FDI （외상직접투자）적월도동비증장솔균출현불동정도적련속부증장，경제증속야정현명현방완추세。기우2008년1월지2013년6월적월도수거，통과구건SVAR（결구향량자회귀）모형，대아국출구、FDI화경제증장지간적동태영향관계진행연구。결과현시，FDI대아국경제증장적추동작용현저，출구대경제증장적공헌칙십분유한，단중국경제보지은정증장회대출구화FDI산생적겁영향，차출구화FDI지간존재명현상호촉진작용。
After the outbreak of U.S.financial crisis,the monthly growth rate (year on year)of Chinas exports and FDI (foreign direct investment)showed continuously negative growth,and the economic growth also slowed down.Based on monthly data from January 2008 to June 2013,this paper analyzes the relationship among China’s export, FDI and economic growth by using SVAR(Structural Vector Auto Regression)model.The result suggests that FDI plays a significant role in promoting economic growth,exports contributes little to the economic growth.However,the economic growth has a positive impact on both exports and FDI in China,and a significantly mutual promotion exists between exports and FDI.