CAJ | 학술논문

针对交通政策设计中决策过程的可选方法展开探讨。探索对出行政策进行综合预测、评价、优化以实现决策方案最优的可能性。从长远来看，为了适应像城市这样一个动态系统，采用了用地与交通相互影响模型(LUTI)的长期评估方法。在评估的全过程中，通过成本效益分析来衡量实施LUTI动态决策所产生的社会福利，然后通过优化程序使其达到最大化。这一模型在马德里市收费站最优定价策略项目中得到验证，该项目要求保证系统效率、社会公平以及环境质量。与其他定价方案相比，最优方案能以相对较低的收费产生更多的社会盈余。该实践结果突出强调了不同因素对研究区域以及对社会福利盈余的主要贡献者的影响，从而反思采用的成本分析方法是否可以作为设计可持续政策的最佳方法。
침대교통정책설계중결책과정적가선방법전개탐토。탐색대출행정책진행종합예측、평개、우화이실현결책방안최우적가능성。종장원래간，위료괄응상성시저양일개동태계통，채용료용지여교통상호영향모형(LUTI)적장기평고방법。재평고적전과정중，통과성본효익분석래형량실시LUTI동태결책소산생적사회복리，연후통과우화정서사기체도최대화。저일모형재마덕리시수비참최우정개책략항목중득도험증，해항목요구보증계통효솔、사회공평이급배경질량。여기타정개방안상비，최우방안능이상대교저적수비산생경다적사회영여。해실천결과돌출강조료불동인소대연구구역이급대사회복리영여적주요공헌자적영향，종이반사채용적성본분석방법시부가이작위설계가지속정책적최가방법。
This article presents an alternative approach to the decision-making process in transport strategy design. The study explores the possibility of integrating forecasting, assessment and optimization proce-dures in support of a decision-making process designed to reach the best achievable scenario through mo-bility policies. Long-term evaluation, as required by a dynamic system such as a city, is provided by a stra-tegic Land-Use and Transport Interaction (LUTI) model. The social welfare achieved by implementing mo-bility LUTI model policies is measured through a cost-benefit analysis and maximized through an optimi-zation process throughout the evaluation period. The method is tested by optimizing a pricing policy scheme in Madrid on a cordon toll in a context requiring system efficiency, social equity and environmen-tal quality. The optimized scheme yields an appreciable increase in social surplus through a relatively low rate compared to other similar pricing toll schemes. The results highlight the different considerations re-garding mobility impacts on the case study area, as well as the major contributors to social welfare surplus. This leads the authors to reconsider the cost-analysis approach, as defined in the study, as the best option for formulating sustainability measures.