CAJ | 학술논문

为弥补民航部门常规预测思路在航空枢纽集疏运设施供给策略、供给规模预测方面的不足，提出面向集疏运设施规模及供给策略的空港综合交通枢纽客流需求预测思路。在判断主要客流构成的基础上，明确了分客流、分方式的预测总思路；在分析经济增长和高铁两大影响航空客流增长的主要因素基础上，分别提出陆侧航空客流和中转航空客流的预测方法，进而得到航空客流总量，支撑空港枢纽对外交通设施供给策略的制定。以此为基础，通过客流分布、方式划分等技术手段，确定各集疏运方式的客流需求规模，为相应设施规模的预测提供依据。
위미보민항부문상규예측사로재항공추뉴집소운설시공급책략、공급규모예측방면적불족，제출면향집소운설시규모급공급책략적공항종합교통추뉴객류수구예측사로。재판단주요객류구성적기출상，명학료분객류、분방식적예측총사로；재분석경제증장화고철량대영향항공객류증장적주요인소기출상，분별제출륙측항공객류화중전항공객류적예측방법，진이득도항공객류총량，지탱공항추뉴대외교통설시공급책략적제정。이차위기출，통과객류분포、방식화분등기술수단，학정각집소운방식적객류수구규모，위상응설시규모적예측제공의거。
Demand forecasting methods commonly used by civil aviation agencies are inadequate to make effective supply strategies and forecast demand for passenger distributing facilities at airport terminals. To overcome such deficiency, this paper proposes a new passenger travel demand forecasting methodology fo-cused on the scale of facilities and supply strategies. Through identifying the composition of major passen-ger flows, the paper presents the framework of demand forecasting by flow types and modes. Based on analyses of the two major factors affecting the growth of air-passenger volume, namely economic growth and high-speed railway, the paper proposes the forecasting methods for landside and transfer air-passenger flows, respectively. The total air-passenger volume is then obtained to support the making of facility sup-ply strategies for airport terminals. Based on passenger flow distribution and modal splits, passenger de-mands of different travel modes can be determined to provide the basis for forecasting the supply of corre-sponding facilities.