CAJ | 학술논문

利用动态分辨系数，通过灰色关联分析对伊犁州三大区域的农业经济结构、农林牧渔业总产值结构、粮食产量以及肉类产量结构进行了初步的对比研究，分析了关联程度较高的影响因子，并通过相关时序模型进行预测分析，结果表明：新疆伊犁州三大地区非农产业所占的比重越来越大，目前已形成以农牧为主的产值结构，小麦、玉米为主的优势产业，以及牛肉、羊肉等为主的生产优势区。伊犁州三大区域应立足于各地区的资源和地域优势，因时制宜，充分发挥各地区优势非农产业以及优势牛羊畜牧业和优势粮食作物，提高优势产品的加工转化，延长产业链，发挥龙头企业的带动作用，进一步促进伊犁州三大地区农业以及农村经济的可持续发展。
이용동태분변계수，통과회색관련분석대이리주삼대구역적농업경제결구、농림목어업총산치결구、양식산량이급육류산량결구진행료초보적대비연구，분석료관련정도교고적영향인자，병통과상관시서모형진행예측분석，결과표명：신강이리주삼대지구비농산업소점적비중월래월대，목전이형성이농목위주적산치결구，소맥、옥미위주적우세산업，이급우육、양육등위주적생산우세구。이리주삼대구역응립족우각지구적자원화지역우세，인시제의，충분발휘각지구우세비농산업이급우세우양축목업화우세양식작물，제고우세산품적가공전화，연장산업련，발휘룡두기업적대동작용，진일보촉진이리주삼대지구농업이급농촌경제적가지속발전。
By using the grey correlation with dynamic resolution coefficient ,this paper makes the preliminary com-parative study of the three main regions of Yili state ,by analyzing the economic structure of agriculture ,structure of gross output value ,structure of grain and meat production .Meanwhile ,the influencing factors of high degree of correlation and prediction analysis through the relevant time-series model were performed .Non-agricultural section had an ever-growing contribution in the three main regions of Yili state in Xinjiang .At present ,it has formed the industrial structure mostly on agriculture and animal husbandry ,superior industry mainly on wheat ,corn ,beans ,and the areas of the production mainly based on beef and mutton .It is imperative to improve the processing transformation of the competitive products and extend the industrial chain .These regions should take the advantages of regional resources and geographical location , with emphasis on the non-agricultural industries ,animal husbandry ,and food crops .In addition ,larger enterprise should play a leading role to further promote the sustainable development of agriculture and rural economy of the three areas .